tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48533154450828095092024-03-14T11:48:50.966+01:00Random WalkThis, that, and a little of the other thing.
As John Lennon once said, life is what happens when you are making other plans.DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.comBlogger319125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-65938894095971112322024-01-12T03:08:00.002+01:002024-01-12T03:08:53.374+01:00Where There's Music and There's People, and They're Young and Alive<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsbxjV2_jVx1e3wDgD0Zak6wDzpKYsIERUCM_cENbutZtlFp4WIblYau99dDFruBpTtWAw3PgHW4a2iIdw_Kz4TUEnJ0igPSdKrIMV-rse0EIBS5Se2O__nBu7NlISwkEKTKoWDw6dSLBBpgHzjaKDjj2vQ1NPaqDXV5pkocr-rlBhq82lLec_wxpUbMJn" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1166" data-original-width="1750" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsbxjV2_jVx1e3wDgD0Zak6wDzpKYsIERUCM_cENbutZtlFp4WIblYau99dDFruBpTtWAw3PgHW4a2iIdw_Kz4TUEnJ0igPSdKrIMV-rse0EIBS5Se2O__nBu7NlISwkEKTKoWDw6dSLBBpgHzjaKDjj2vQ1NPaqDXV5pkocr-rlBhq82lLec_wxpUbMJn" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">2024 is now more than a week old; the year got off to a great start, spending the first week (more or less) in Maui, our family's "happy place." We've been going out just about every year for the past 20, and have seen our son in a sense 'grow up' there. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As a barely one-year-old, I can remember waking at four in the morning and carrying him around the beach walk in the darkness. Listening to the waves and waiting for the sun to rise. Then as a toddler, learning to swim in the pool and making sand castles. Now, he is on the edge of adulthood. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Who knows how many more trips we have left?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of my personal favourite things about being in the Islands is that Ka'anapali is west-facing, which means that on a clear day, we can watch the sun sink slowly into the distance over the Pacific.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It reminded me of a time, many years ago. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Recently, I was asked a question - what is a favorite memory you hold onto of feeling alive? What made you feel that way? How long did the feeling last?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I could fall back on a number of quite significant things. All are terrific memories.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Being in Maui and seeing those golden sunsets brings me back to a far more prosaic time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the fall of 1995, I was living in Fremont, California, a suburban city about an hour south and east of San Francisco. I was 25 years old then, in my first job. No real responsibilities. Each weekend, I would go hiking in one of the many parks in the east bay. A favourite was a place called “Garin Ranch,” which is just above neighbouring Hayward. It’s a series of easy, relatively flat trails in the foothills.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I remember that it was getting later in the afternoon, and was cool. Maybe 50 degrees. It was getting towards sunset and dusk.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">From the trail in Garin Ranch, you can see the San Francisco Bay below, and on the other side, the cities of the Peninsula and the Santa Cruz Mountains.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It was a crystal clear day, and the sun had just begun to set behind the mountains. I stopped to watch as the sun touched the mountains, and then gradually sank behind them. I had never really watched the sun go down, and I was amazed that you could actually see it sinking, slowly from view. Over about 45 seconds, it descended, and then was gone, leaving “golden hour” light.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For the first time in my life, I saw the sun set, and it was an awesome, magical feeling.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That feeling was a time I really, truly felt <i>alive</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now, it’s obviously not constant, because I have to think back to that day. But the feeling has now lasted nearly 30 years.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-55687608773756780962023-09-06T02:31:00.002+02:002023-09-06T02:31:51.291+02:00That Was a Great Day<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I'm a baseball fan, and have been about as far back as I can remember. Growing up, I have many life memories that in one way or another attach to the game. Long, languid summers playing pickup ball in a furloughed school yard. Listening to the Blue Jay games on static from a radio station in Leamington, Ontario. Going to the games with friends.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The 2023 is winding down, and recently, I was asked a question that is variant of one I suppose every fan thinks of from time to time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In your memories of baseball, what was a great day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's subtly different from "what was a great game." I of course can think of many great games - some wins, some losses.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But great "days?" That's something different.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Two great days come to mind when I think a bit. Bookends, of sorts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">They were not “great” in the sense that something huge happened on the field. No heroic performance by a player, no season-changing outcome. There was no perfect game, or four home run performance. The San Diego Chicken did not make its debut nor was anything of historical import done.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For me, they were “great,” though.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In mid July 1978, as a young kid, we were visiting my grandparents in Cleveland, Ohio. My parents took us downtown to see a game at the old Cleveland Municipal Stadium.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I had never been to a professional baseball game before, but having just the year before begun playing, I was really excited.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The old stadium was one of those huge, horse-shoe shaped fields with a giant main concourse underneath. I remember emerging from the tunnel to see the brilliant sky and green grass. The smell of vendors hawking popcorn and hot dogs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can clearly remember the loudspeakers playing a 1970s, easy listening song, “Summer Breeze” (no; really), by Seals and Crofts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The opponent that day was the Kansas City Royals, in their powder blue road uniforms. As part of the festivities, children were allowed onto the field to have our photos taken with one of the Cleveland players (in those days, the Indians). Eight year old me chose Horace Speed, who was the starting centre fielder that year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As a souvenir, I asked for a pennant and a plastic batting helmet. Being from Toronto, I was a Blue Jays fan (the Jays had just begun play a year before), so my parents got me a Blue Jay helmet. I remember going back to my grandparents’ house that day after the game was over, and pretending to be a big leaguer, racing around imaginary bases with my helmet on.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over the subsequent years, I’ve been to many hundreds of games, but my first is probably my favourite.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other end of the spectrum, in 1994, now 24 years old and in my final year of grad school, I went back to Cleveland, where my parents had settled. This time, to see my father. It was June, a week after school ended.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I went this time with my father to the new Cleveland Stadium - called Jacobs Field at first. It had opened that same year, and was brand new. Just my father and I went, reliving an experience and memory nearly twenty years past.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It was not the same, of course. I was not a wild-eyed eight year old. We couldn’t go on the field, and everything was on a more human scale - the field was still as green and the sky as blue. The game and the dimensions had not changed, but I had.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was in Cleveland because my father had been diagnosed with lung cancer.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Going to Jacobs Field in June 1994, the day before I came back to San Francisco to start my first job, was the last day I got to spend with my father when he was alive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The games themselves were not great, and in fact, I don’t even remember who won.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-23344008493345760162023-07-05T21:19:00.004+02:002023-07-05T21:19:55.351+02:00There Is No Going Back<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWT7trzZPa0cwQRSVJxzA9PEXAt3A0jMhzz9NYUdX4EoKuChDVZqithpgpBvBx8kGAheaZNOJvDdwn4t1jFWwdmLZ6r4QpUzm6trSJI35Dq5gTQfLCznTHCC2YMumWrjcXaVP9qUqO0yYuvJb_2iwdf8NISo_lyCAGgPTVqSdf62-jehFnZjI8H3OmJdpP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="900" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWT7trzZPa0cwQRSVJxzA9PEXAt3A0jMhzz9NYUdX4EoKuChDVZqithpgpBvBx8kGAheaZNOJvDdwn4t1jFWwdmLZ6r4QpUzm6trSJI35Dq5gTQfLCznTHCC2YMumWrjcXaVP9qUqO0yYuvJb_2iwdf8NISo_lyCAGgPTVqSdf62-jehFnZjI8H3OmJdpP" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yesterday, my family and I went to see what is likely to be the final Indiana Jones movie, <i>Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny</i>.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's not a bad ending for the franchise - plenty of action. Some one-liners. Nice cameos for Jonathan Rhys-Davies (Salla) and Karen Allen (Marian). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The vehicle, both literally and figuratively, is a device that actually <i>does exist</i>, the Antikythera mechanism, which was discovered for real in a shipwreck found in 1901. Now, the device is unlikely to have actually been constructed by Archimedes, but many consider it the first real computer. It could not do what the movie implied, but it was obviously way, way ahead of its time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have written a fair amount about technology - how it changes life, what the pitfalls as well as benefits for humanity are. Mainly, I think what tech does is enhance what we are capable of rather than changing our nature. With the rise of so-called "AI," and most notably and recently, Chat GPT, I was thinking about how the current young people cannot imagine a world without some of the inventions that are now more prosaic. Mobile telephones. Tablets. The internet.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As Gen-Xer, I would start by pointing out that the AI and the internet are technologies, much like others. And they obviously have had and <i>will have </i>a profound impact on life.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But are these changes more significant than others. More than, say, the automobile? The telephone?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My wife, son, and I during COVID began watching the television show Downton Abbey, and in Season 1, the manor house gets its first telephone. Everyone is mesmerized by it, save for the dowager mother of Lord Grantham, who views it with cynicism and suspicion.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The younger servants in the house (e.g., Thomas) could be said to be the “last generation to experience what life was like before the telephone.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Every invention that came before us, to our conscious minds has always been there. My grandfather was born in 1908, so for him, although the airplanes became a routine device, it had not always been around, and it surely was not ubiquitous.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can remember when I was first exposed to a computer (in 1981, an Apple II+). I clearly remember my first modem (a Hayes 300 baud device that you put the telephone receiver to, circa 1983). I can clearly remember trying to send documents via email using uuencode and uudecode. Then Stuffit, then WinZIP that did everything automatically. Then you could just drag and drop files into an email.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The internet has, more than any other of these inventions, had a massive impact on culture. My son is 16, and he simply cannot imagine the world without it. The idea of going to a library, sorting through a card catalog, getting books, and doing research that way is as odd to him as would be using a telegraph to me. Hell, he has never seen a real encyclopaedia, or had the thrill of waiting for the “update” that came every year in an extra volume to augment the now out-of-date information.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Almost everything he needs or wants to know, he can get in minutes from a tiny device that’s the size of an old Texas Instruments led calculator that I used to use.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That puts information at his disposal that 16 year old me could not dream of.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other hand, it also means less human connection. “Relationships” are often virtual. Friends are icons on a screen. I got a glimpse of this in graduate school, where one night, two people waiting for their simulations to converge (I got my degree in mathematics) were using a live chat whilst sitting at their SUN work stations.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">They were sitting in the same room.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought it odd, and dysfunctional at the time. I couldn’t imagine things like WeChat or twitter then.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So something gained, and something lost.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We gain information, we lose human connection.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In short, it’s a Faustian bargain. Like all technology is. It’s up to us to use it wisely.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And finally, I do not accept the premise that it will never be the same again. The Romans at one point had engineering and technology that along the way got lost. It took humanity in some case centuries to learn back what was known.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It would be incredibly hubristic to think that we cannot fall to the same situation as they did.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-59152662188870507722023-04-04T21:31:00.000+02:002023-04-04T21:31:02.778+02:00Live Fast<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">At a recent awards show, former pop idol Madonna drew some fairly unkind comments about her battle with aging - a fight we all face in one way or another - and how badly her obvious plastic surgery had turned out. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">People often think of celebrities, and often, it appears as thinly-veiled jealousy. They're rich. They have lifestyles that appear glamourous and easy. Few people say "no." My own life is comfortable if not glamourous. I have complaints of course, but in the grand scheme of things, there are few things that I <i>really want</i> that are out of reach. Most of those are not really worth having, to be honest. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So I am not envious of celebrities. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But the comments about Madonna and subsequent arguments in social media made me think. One in particular popped up - "What celebrity, in your opinion, has aged the worst?" Almost all the responses focused on people who either got fat, lost their hair, had bad plastic surgery, or some combination of the lot.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do not have the money and apparent carefree lifestyle of a Hollywood star. On the other hand, as I get older, and look older, no-one cares. I am not going to wind up on the cover of a tabloid being photographed in sweat pants walking out of an AM/PM.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And thus, my answer is likely different compared to others. And it is this.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rather than engage in a discussion of people who once looked great but now as they have gotten older do not look so good anymore, or posting “shocking” pictures of a 55 year old woman without makeup, I would say that when it comes to aging “poorly,” nothing can top not aging at all.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The celebrity who aged “the worst” in my opinion is River Phoenix, who if he were alive, would be the same age as I am. We were both born in 1970.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Phoenix ran out of tomorrows in 1993. He was 23 years old.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have no idea how River Phoenix would look today if he were alive. But ultimately, Madonna is alive and River Phoenix isn't. And that counts for something.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We should feel grateful that we are given today and not regret that we looked better at some point in the past.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">People, if they are lucky, age. None of us - not you, not me - look better at 50 than we did at 25. It’s just that simple.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-63856811003899025072023-01-08T04:42:00.002+01:002023-01-08T04:42:30.735+01:0088 MPH at 45 RPM<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am a kid of the 1980s, though in truth, I am no more a "kid," as birthday 53 is looming just over the horizon. I still remember when, in the words of kitsch pop group "Bowling for Soup," MTV still played music.</span></p><p><b><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">Since Bruce Springsteen, Madonna<br />Way before Nirvana<br />There was U2 and Blondie<br />And music still on MTV<br />Her two kids in high school<br />They tell her that she's uncool<br />'Cause she's still preoccupied<br />With 19, 19</span></i></b></p><p><b><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">1985</span></i></b></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">At that time, there was a throw-away line from an old Van Halen song that said something to the effect that, every day, your life is growing shorter while your memories are growing longer. Of course, it's undeniably true. Time is relentless. It is unforgiving.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Read last night as I was heading off to sleep that another former high school mate has left us behind. Death comes for us all. It just comes for some too soon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One thing that today offers that yesterday did not was the ability to summon music <i>on command</i>. Spotify, YouTube, and even (a bit earlier), Napster allows us to curate playlists that, 40 years ago, we had to patiently create by placing cassette tapes into clunky tape decks, await our favourite songs to be selected, and then wait for the deejay to end his "talk up" to press, simultaneously, the PLAY and red RECORD buttons.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Going back generations, writers of science fiction have talked of time machines. HG Wells. Stephen Spielberg made a time machine, famously, out of a DeLorean car in 1985.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Time machines, of a sort, in essence already exist. They exist in sound. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe I am alone in thinking this, but I find that certain songs, more than any other medium, have the ability to take us, instantly, to a specific moment in time. On New Year's Eve, we were counting down with ABC, and Duran Duran were one of the guests. Hearing Simon Le Bon sing "Hungry Like the Wolf" immediately took me back to walking home from seventh grade, stack of books under my hand, with my Sony Walkman and foam headphones. As a young adult, "Bittersweet Symphony" or Marcy Playground conjure up an image of the day I moved into my first house. Even weirdly enough, the Seals and Croft song "Summer Breeze," which was on the recorded track at Cleveland Municipal Stadium for between innings, reminds me of the first time I ever saw a professional baseball game in the cavernous, and now gone, stadium. I can smell the fresh grass and hot dogs when it appears.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now that I have Spotify, I can put on a playlist from 1982, 1995, or even 2005 (when my son was born), and I do not need 1.21 gigawatts. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">No plutonium needed.</span></p><p><br /></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-2997477061587298892022-10-26T02:37:00.004+02:002022-10-26T03:47:14.843+02:00Eventually, We Are All Microserfs<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiF9MKp3K3Rny0322YZQ90dC32yCAYMz_ZJcQv2EDx1xyOKHA6ZyBFbkploXmOH3vh0cEdmDrG1PBcYeA3VifAneDVCYdt8Mu1JFfbyLkgR_hG9WFhs26XlT1yT_Z4gENKQFWe-zWRAeDS4wqvI5obTQvu6wtxuiei2fHG8ZGlqs-tQfsiKkb91Lazw9w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img alt="" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="240" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiF9MKp3K3Rny0322YZQ90dC32yCAYMz_ZJcQv2EDx1xyOKHA6ZyBFbkploXmOH3vh0cEdmDrG1PBcYeA3VifAneDVCYdt8Mu1JFfbyLkgR_hG9WFhs26XlT1yT_Z4gENKQFWe-zWRAeDS4wqvI5obTQvu6wtxuiei2fHG8ZGlqs-tQfsiKkb91Lazw9w" width="240" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In exactly two weeks, we in the USA will go to the polls for the "mid-term elections." Which is to say, an election held in between presidential tilts - the middle of the current incumbent's term. There has always been something of a generational split in US politics, but (with the exception of the 1960s), never has one been so noisome is the current millennial versus baby boomer ruction.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was recently on an airplane flying for business, and had a couple of hours to kill, so, flipping through the movies selection, I happened across a now nearly 30-year old film called <i>Reality Bites</i>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This movie, starring a young Ethan Hawke, Winona Rider, and Ben Stiller (who actually, it turns out, also directed) depicts the lives of a group of recent college graduates in Houston, Texas. The lot (Stiller aside) struggles with the move into "real" adulthood.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The release date was early in 1994, which makes the characters just about my age at the time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought of <i>Reality Bites </i>as I was reading the back and forth between millennials (themselves now moving into middle age) and their nemesis generation - which of course, are the baby boomers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The whole fight skipped my generation, the Generation Xers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One particular commenter snidely asked if baby boomers get "upset" because the national focus has moved from them onto millennials (again, hello from my cohort). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I got to thinking - is this true? Is it actually the case that “boomers” (baby boomers) get upset when someone (presumably, not a baby boomer) when it’s pointed out that advertisers prefer the 25–54 demographic? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My parents are baby boomers, as are their friends. More than one of my colleagues is as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I’ve not seen this happen, even once.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am a sample size of one, and of course, it is not really anything more than the observations of one person.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was born in 1970, which makes me solidly part of Generation X.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I watch the “OK boomer” versus the “snowflake millennial” civil war with a certain amount of bemusement.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was 21 years old in 1991 when the writer Douglas Coupland published his book Generation X, which is where the name of my cohort comes from. A year later, he published a companion called <i>Microserfs</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am a mathematician; I was at graduate school when my sister, an English major in college at the time, and now an English teacher, sent copies to me to read. This was before Kindle or other e-readers, so we read actual, physical books in those days.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">When <i>Reality Bites </i>was released, <b>my cohort </b>was the target of advertisers. Movies - like <i>Reality Bites - </i>that played heavily on stereotypes were targeted at us. We were the new workers whom our elders were struggling to understand. We lived in our parents’ basements and were refusing to grow up. We had economic and social challenges, but the things that we decided were “cool” defined the culture.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">You know what? I went to bed one night, and the next day, I was the focus of an article in the Wall Street Journal about what older workers were needing.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Here is the ugly truth: the world moves on. <b>Your time is temporary</b>. At some point, <i><b>there will be a younger generation </b></i>that is going to be the apple of Madison Avenue’s eye; it will also be the target of scorn for sociologists and writers at the Wall Street Journal.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I think that as much as baby boomers do get “upset,” and I think this is seriously overstated, it’s more to the reality that nobody likes to face the truth that your time on earth is going to end, and that life is going to go on even after you don’t.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Advertisers are just hip to this before the Angel of Death is.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-40833555442800808222022-09-30T00:36:00.004+02:002022-09-30T00:48:24.387+02:00Downfall of the Once Great<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A couple of weeks ago, I had the chance to stop over and visit my mother and family back east as I returned home from a business trip. Got me to thinking about a question I was asked a few years ago -</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"What was the downfall of the 'popular' kid in your high school?"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I've now been out of high school for 34 years; my own son will be graduating in June next year. So this was -and remains -</span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> an interesting question</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My own honest, lived experience is this: for almost all of us, life is not like it is portrayed in television or movies. There is no tragic downfall. The cool, arrogant jock almost never gets any sort of cosmic retribution. The neglected, quiet kid does not triumph. My life was not screen-written by John Hughes, as I suspect yours wasn't.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For the most part, life just….goes on.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I went to a pretty run-of-the-mill high school. It was good, but not outstanding academically. A kid two years ahead of me - Class of 1986 - was the first from my school to be accepted into Harvard in 16 years. The only student as far as I know ever accepted into Princeton was a Westinghouse Science winner. By comparison, my son's high school, a public school here in San Francisco, had <i>three</i> graduates last year accepted to Harvard, and two to Princeton.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Athletically, it was a suburban school of less than 1000 students, so most of the sports teams were mediocre to poor. We weren’t a wealthy community, and we were not one destined to be showcased in a “feel good” movie starring some pretty young white woman and edgy, urban black guy.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am guessing that most of you could probably relate to this. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Because of this, our “popular” kids were probably pretty unremarkable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The most popular kid in my class was, unsurprisingly, a football player. Probably the best in our school, and so he was good. But he wasn’t good enough to get any sort of college scholarship.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The ‘cool group’ were largely made up of athletes who stood out among their peers but again, if the teams won as many games as they lost, it was a ‘good year.’</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I graduated first in my class, so I guess I was in the ‘bookworm’ group. I had a small group of friends. Most of us looked at the in-group with some admixture of envy, jealousy, and if I am being perfectly, absolutely honest, a whiff of self-righteous disdain.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For those who ruled the roost, there was no “downfall” to speak of. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">They ran the school until June 1988. Some went off to college. Some went straight to work. The ‘cool guy jock’ joined the Navy. I went away to school back east (Dartmouth), and aside from visiting my parents and family for Christmas, went back only once - to attend a friend’s wedding. My father died 25 years ago; my mother sold our family home 10 years ago and moved back home to Canada. I doubt that I’ll ever return.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There was a television show on, maybe 25 years ago, called “The Wonder Years.” It focused on the adolescent life of a kid named Kevin Arnold, set on a street that looked for all intents and purposes exactly like the one I lived on as a little kid in Garden Grove, California. Garden Grove is a relentlessly middle-class suburb in Orange County, about an hour south of Los Angeles.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Kevin’s life was not terribly unfamiliar to me. Few remarkable things ever happened. In one of the episodes, the narrator (played, I think, by Daniel Stern) observed that, in junior high, who you are is dictated by who sits next to you at lunch.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">(As an odd aside, when I was a grad student, I had Fred Savage (who played Kevin Arnold) as an undergrad in one of my sections at Stanford.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In one episode, an odd girl with three pigtails befriends Kevin. Kevin was desperate always to move up to the cool lunch table, and was off-put by the oddball’s attempts to be friends. He shuns her, and by the end of the episode, she moves away. At the close of the show, in his epilogue Kevin remarks that "no-one remembers much about the kids you were so desperate to impress as a kid.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The reality is that almost none of us is destined for any sort of conventional “greatness.” We are destined to live the more or less “average” life. There are some triumphs. There are some failures. I personally do not consider it a ‘downfall’ that the BMOC ended up in a typical, middle-class job.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Thanks to Facebook, I found out that the jock who sat at the top of the cool table, after a stint in the Navy, turned out as an adult to be a pretty solid, nice, and empathetic guy who spends his time when not working helping needy people. It’s not what I would have imagined from a guy who I thought I had pegged as a 16 year old with a cocky attitude and a big mouth.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What he does now impresses me a lot more than his exploits on the football field or in the halls of my high school.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">John Lennon once said that life is what happens when you’re making plans. Jobs. Families. Bills. Kids. Weddings. Funerals.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-40464021970510559712021-01-22T02:30:00.003+01:002021-11-09T17:51:53.015+01:00You Were Made as Well as We Could Make You<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8yS-q17Hwt26DyTOb_t3yJ-QUFbpCtSaVgUwTlxZ4y-0f9ouwr1xJTx1mNQwHo0x45vHv5kVxFrVPLz1qne8VONdh-RlWqUNi7Z5CKXGeH6xWXp2hzOnDzV4TpGFQtLSlSsdlTgMf9FN/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img alt="" data-original-height="104" data-original-width="142" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8yS-q17Hwt26DyTOb_t3yJ-QUFbpCtSaVgUwTlxZ4y-0f9ouwr1xJTx1mNQwHo0x45vHv5kVxFrVPLz1qne8VONdh-RlWqUNi7Z5CKXGeH6xWXp2hzOnDzV4TpGFQtLSlSsdlTgMf9FN/w275-h201/image.png" width="275" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My sister last night (my time - she is three time zones ahead) posted an image in social media. One I haven't seen in quite a while. It's an analog photo that had been scanned in, a bit yellowing now with age. It's a photo of my father, in his Navy uniform, holding my baby brother James, outside our then home in suburban Los Angeles. Garden Grove, California to be more precise.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I don't know if the photo was taken the day that my mother and father brought my sister and brother home from the hospital, but it's plainly in the very early days of their lives. (My brother and sister are twins).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today is my father's birthday. He would have been 80 years old this year. But of course, dad lost his battle to cancer many years ago. This summer, it will be 27 years in fact.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Looking at that photo, I see a baby whose entire life remains, and I see my father, who was then a young man. Much younger than I am now. At the time, nobody knew, nobody <i>could </i>know, what life had in store for my brother, my sister, or my dad. That's the bargain. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of my very earliest memories was the day that my parents returned from hospital with my brother and sister. I can recall pretty clearly them being absent in the final days before the twins were born, and the excitement of the day that all came home. I remember the anticipation and happiness of getting the chance to hold them - sitting in a chair; I was three and a half then. I have an older brother, 11 months my senior, so until that day, I was the youngest. Charles and I each got a chance to hold our new siblings. To meet them and welcome them to the house. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now, from time to time, I think of that day. The memory seems pretty clear, perhaps <i>too </i>clear in my mind. So at this point, I cannot say how much of the image I can recall is real, and how much of it has been constructed over time. A shadow, re-enforced by suggestion and by my own imagination. In the film <i>Blade Runner</i>, the replicants (artificial humans) are given "memories" of events that did not happen. But to the replicants, they are as real as they could be, and I guess, help define their humanity for them.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As time is passing, the distance between when dad was alive and here and today grows longer. 27 years is not so long ago for me now. Time has a way of shaping our view of the past, and I suspect, softens the hard light that shines around the things we would rather not see. God has given us in the way we remember the past a precious gift that is more powerful than an airbrush. More of what constitutes our brief time on earth becomes photographs and memories all the time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I think about my father a bit every day. A bit more so on his birthday. A bit more on the anniversary of the day he left us behind here. I thought he was an old man, as I suspect, every kid thinks about their parents. I am now about two years on the south side of the age he was when he died. I don't <i>feel</i> like an old man, although I sometimes do not recognize the face that now looks back at me in the mirror. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I've said it before, but human beings are not machine-made. Real things risk imperfections. We are made as well as we could be, but we break. We age. Ultimately, we leave behind photographs and memories and stories.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">All too often, we measure our lives by what we've done. My father was a surgeon. Part of his job was fixing imperfections of people when they fell and were broken. A part of it was assuring that my brothers, sister, mother, and me had lives that were made as well as they could be. His life wasn't one that politicians talk about, or that get profiled in the newspaper. His alma mater will never name a building after him. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dad wasn't a 'great' man. But he was a good one. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A critical lesson that I did not know then, but I think I grasp now, that I have my own son who is just a couple of years removed from becoming an adult, is that what is truly valuable in living is not the toys you accumulate or the pictures of vacations that you take. It's not the house you live in or cars you drive. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I've reached some level of success in life. I've had the chance to see the world, made a good career. People offer congratulations.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But the truth is this:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Much of what I have been able to do is because of the things my parents couldn't. Their sacrifices were my opportunities. The things I got to see were the places they missed. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now that I am decidedly on the back nine, that's how I hope my life measures when I am a photograph in a book. My own son will have his own life. He'll make his own choices, and ultimately, measure out his happiness and success by the yardsticks he decides. My hope is that when he is my age, he will look at how I spent my life and my time the way that I look at my old man, who didn't get the chance to get "old." </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">If I can measure to half of that tally, that's a life that I can defend as great in a meaningful and not platitudinous way. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">80 years old. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Happy birthday, dad. Thanks for how you invested your life in your family. In me.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I miss you a lot.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-86593095284804504672020-09-03T00:37:00.003+02:002020-09-03T00:37:33.943+02:00In Case of Fire, Break Glass<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We are now more or less into our sixth month of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (the novel coronavirus that is at the heart of COVID-19). As of today, the estimated number of infected Americans is just over six million, and between 175,000 (<a href="https://covidtracking.com/" target="_blank">official state departments of health</a>) and 185,000 (<a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins University</a>) have lost their lives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unfortunately, this outbreak early on itself became infected with politics, and sides quickly were chosen and battle lines drawn.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's an election year, so some of this is to be expected.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Fights about shelter in place orders, mask wearing, possible therapies, vaccine developments, how to measure the impact economically and medically, and myriad other battles were launched.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Recently a thread has appeared, quietly at first, but over the past few days, it has gathered momentum.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">According to a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm" target="_blank">weekly report issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a> (CDC), somewhere on the order of 94 per cent of people who died with COVID-19 had one or more underlying conditions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Many seized on this to claim that the epidemic is grossly overblown, and that "only" six per cent of those who died with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection died "from COVID-19." Something of a semantic debate has been going on for months about the differences between dying <i>from</i> COVID-19 (i.e., that the virus itself caused death) and dying <i>with</i> COVID-19 (you died from something else, and COVID-19 was just on board). The recent publication has caused the debate to reignite, and with more heat.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am not a virologist or infectious disease doctor. I don't see or treat patients. I'm not a coroner or a medical examiner. It's not my job to assign cause of death.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I'm also not a politician who is looking at a tough re-election, or a challenger looking to parlay the pandemic into a means of election. Nor am I a political operative or pundit who gets paid to sway public opinion one way or the other.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am an epidemiologist.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's (part) of my job to look at health data from a public or population health perspective. Moreover, I spent several years working on research in both hepatitis-C (Hep-C) and HIV disease. I've seen and participated in all sorts of analyses - disease transmission models, outcomes research, interventional impact analyses. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mortality modelling.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">No-one knows for certain how many people at this point have actually been exposed, how many have been infected, or how many have actually died. With or due to COVID. We have estimates, and we have models on top of data. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I <i>do</i> know this, however.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Whether the 94% statistic is accurate, and whether people with comorbidity (what in my world is the term used to describe "underlying conditions"), you need to take the estimates of death seriously. You need to look at claims that, because "only six per cent of people who died had no underlying conditions" the problem is being made larger than it is, or that you can ignore the threat.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The truth is that a huge number of Americans over the age of 18 <i>has underlying conditions</i>. It is possible - even likely if you are over 40 - that you have at least one. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I know that I do.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Here is a paper published last month from the CDC on the prevalence of various chronic conditions in the US (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929a1.htm#contribAff">https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929a1.htm#contribAff</a>). The authors looked at a selected set of conditions believed to be associated with COVID mortality, including diabetes, obesity, heart disease, kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data in various states, in cities and rural areas, were examined for people over the age of 18.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The research indicated that <i>forty percent</i> of the adult population had one <i>or more</i> of these conditions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Two out of four.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The numbers turned out to be higher - close to 50% - in rural counties than in large, urban centres (39%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Worse, prevalence rises with age. Far fewer people in their 20s had comorbidity than those over 50.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The arguments you are hearing that COVID-19 is not a serious problem because it, alone, has killed only six per cent of the 175-185,000 people are at best mistaken and at worst deliberately dishonest.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Please take the threat of COVID-19 seriously. Because the threat is serious. It is real.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Luckily, you are not helpless. As I said months ago at the outset, we are not helpless victims of fate. The final trajectory of SARS-CoV-2, its impact on you and people you care about is something you can affect. Your choices still matter. You can still have an impact.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Be smart.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stay home unless you have to go out.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">If you're going to be out, distance from other people if you can.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And if you can't, wear a mask.</span></p>DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-30056322073866685752020-06-02T02:39:00.002+02:002020-06-02T02:48:46.439+02:00A Simple Plan<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I've (intentionally) kept quiet about the unfolding story that has been able to move COVID-19 off the front pages. Off the back page, and all the pages in the middle, to be honest.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">On it's face, it's a really simple story. An old one.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">About a week ago, the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota were called in to deal with what has been alleged as an incident where a middle-aged man - one not far away from my own age in fact - tried to buy some cigarettes with a counterfeit $20 bill. What happened in the time between the call and the terrible outcome is at this point, lost. But we all know how the encounter ended.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The video of Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin sitting with his knee on the back of a prone George Floyd in the last minutes are difficult to watch. Floyd can be heard gasping and begging for his life, at one point calling out to his mother. The officer's expressionless face stares ahead. His eyes - dead eyes - glare at the camera.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Officer Chauvin <i>killed</i> George Floyd with what can, at best, be described as a casual indifference.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Over the past week, protests have erupted across the country, many of them violent. Stores have been destroyed. People hurt - some killed - in spasms of violence.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I haven't had too much to say because, quite frankly, what <i>is there</i> to say?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The bottom line is that <i>Chauvin killed Floyd</i>. Floyd did not lose his life; it was taken from him.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I *really* have zero interest in debating the propriety of the destruction, and less interest in arguing about the looting. Whether it is local people, or left-wing "antifascist" (sic) actvitsts or "white nationalists," it's all the same to me.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I do <i>not</i> condone violence and crime. I live in central San Francisco, which has seen significant violence over the past couple of days. Helicopters buzzed overhead last night, and businesses <i>on my street</i> were boarded up. So I really am in absolutely no mood to be lectured by people living in suburban sinecures about "understanding" crime. I am just interested that my home and family remain safe. I do not have the luxury of social media preening the way many do.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">With respect to politics, I will make a simple plea - I think <i>politicians want </i>to try to smear their political opponents rather than own up to their own guilt. That's what they do. Sorry. So I'm not here to argue whether the president is a fascist or the governor of Minnesota is weak. Pretty much everyone is going to retreat to their own priors on this one, as they <i>always</i> do.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What I want to say is this very simple thing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I don't like a lot of rules; I never had. As a kid, I got into a lot of trouble because it was not in my nature to do something because "I told you so." I spent a fair amount of time in the principal's office because of it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But I have most of my life been a supporter of law and order. The laws should be few; they should be clear. And they should be enforced fairly.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This goes especially for the police, and what happened in Minnesota was not just. It was not fair. And the cops who participated need to be held to account.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I think that there is simply no <i>way</i> one can watch what happened and not come away with the conclusion that the killing of George Floyd by four police officers (and they are <i>all</i> guilty in my book) was a crime. And our law officers if nothing else must uphold the law. There are just no two ways about it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I've heard more than one argument about how many white men are killed by police, how many black men are killed by other black men. I am a mathematician; I know what an odds ratio is. It's beside the point. I have very, very little doubt that <i>in this case</i>, if George Floyd were white, he would likely be alive. This needs to be acknowledged. Our police are just not doing a good job enforcing the laws fairly. I know it. You know it. Yes, you do.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let me tell you a little story. Many, many years ago, I got caught by the CHP speeding on the 280 freeway (a highway that runs south from San Francisco to San Jose, California). I was at the time living in Cupertino, so I must have been 25 or 26 years old at the time. I was late coming home to meet a friend for dinner, so my eye was not really on the speedometer so much as it was on the clock. A motorcycle cop hiding under the CA-87 flyover appeared and pulled me over. In those days, the speed limit in California was still 55, and I was <i>easily</i> going about 80. He wrote me the ticket, and I had a date with the dreaded "traffic offender school." Yes; it's a real thing in California.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So I got up at 6.30 in the morning one Saturday and headed off to 8 hours at Mission College in Santa Clara to make amends. One of the things we all were forced to do at the outset was stand and confess our crimes. I was guilty as hell, which I think everyone else in the room was. Most were for speeding (and if memory serves, the average infraction was <i>at least</i> 20 miles over the limit). We had a few red light violations. One kid who looked and sounded like Jeff Spicoli confessed not only to being caught speeding, but to not quite remembering just how fast he was going because he was "sort of, you know, stoned at the time."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We all laughed, including the "teacher."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But one of the guilty that day was a middle-aged black man; from his accent, a Nigerian I would guess. When it was his turn, his crime was driving 40 in a 35 mph zone on Alma Street in Palo Alto. Now, at the time, I worked in downtown Palo Alto, an upscale town filled to the brim with limousine liberals, so I drove on that stretch of road virtually every day on my way to and from work. If I did 40 on the road, I would be passed by just about everyone, police cruisers included.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">All of us in the room looked at each other sheepishly, because we <i>instinctively</i> knew that he had gotten a black guy driving in Palo Alto ticket.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The bottom line is this - the term "law enforcement" has always struck me as a bit of a misnomer. There is no amount of policing that can "enforce" law upon a society that is unwilling to accept the law. Period. Paragraph. The police are not an occupying force. They should not be seen as one, and they ought not to see themselves in that way.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In order for people to respect the laws, those enforcing the laws must be respectable.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I know people who are cops. I have <i>friends</i> who are in law enforcement. It's an incredibly difficult job. If I am being totally honest, it's a line of work that I lack the physical courage from engaging in because I know that it's dangerous and largely thankless. I live in San Francisco, and I see, everyday, police officers dealing with shit that I - and I suspect that if you're reading this - <i>you</i> would never accept to have to put up with. Police are, as the saying goes, a thin blue line behind which those of us who obey the laws reside behind and rely upon.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And I understand that a lot of the problems cops are forced to deal with is due to the reality that our "leaders" - either because of incompetence, venality, or just a denial of reality - have allowed social problems to fester because it's easier to pander and to mug for the cameras than it is to address real problems. So the cops get to pick up the broken pieces of a broken society that our leaders, and we, have broken.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But that's <i>the job</i>. The job of an officer is to serve and protect. And when one of the officers colours outside the lines, he needs to be held to account. For too long, that's not happened. Derek Chauvin had been reported 18 times in the past 20 years for abuse of power. The leadership in his city did literally nothing about it. The mayor of Minneapolis. The DA. The governor of Minnesota. Nobody acted.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And so here we are, with another man killed by police, and still others killed by violence in our streets.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Q<i>ui custodiet ipsos custodes - </i>who will guard the guards?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Again, I have long harboured libertarian tendencies; I despise state-sanctioned abuse of power. I have no interest in preening for social media, to get "likes" from "woke" friends and acquaintances. Long ago, I stopped caring much about what people think, and ceased seeking approval. I simply think that the state has awesome powers, and that it is all too easy to go beyond what is 'just.' I think that it is important to say that the power to enforce the law is too frequently confused with the power to abuse it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I hate to say it, but it's down to the officers themselves to hold one another to a higher standard of professionalism. I *get* that maybe it's one bad apple in the barrel, but this particular barrel cannot afford to have any bad apples in it.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-43889553071445665882020-04-23T04:41:00.000+02:002020-04-23T04:41:07.105+02:00Models, Models Everywhere<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another post today that deals to a degree in <i>arcanum</i>. The latest iteration of the now famous models of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 and its travelling companion, COVID-19. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have been producing models for some weeks now; models which are updated about every three days or so.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As noted, the model uses empirical data sourced from a number of locations to fit (by force) a sigmoidal function called the "Gaussian Error Function" (a sort of fancy way of looking at likelihoods that a variable drawn from a bell curve will fall within a given range).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Though most of the popular press focus on just one result - the projected total number of deaths - in reality the model offers mortality as well as resource utilisation. The latter focuses on items critical to health care - the number of people who will land in hospital, the number who will land in the ICU, and how many will require mechanical ventilation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The results of the prior iteration for the US were that, by August, just over 65,000 Americans would lose their lives, with the peak on the 15th of April. That represented a reduction from just over 68,000 last week. The latest projection is now up, slightly, to 65.976.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The model must be re-fitted with new data as they become available.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">People are to a degree, missing that models of this sort are not true epidemiological tools, as they have more often than not, been deployed to project resource needs. And in this case, what (and when) will the greatest demand be for the critical medical resources be. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course, this approach (forced curve-fitting) is only one approach, and the IHME model has come under some criticism (I honestly suspect, some is motivated by politics, as this is the tool that Dr Deborah Birx and the US Coronavirus Task Force are using).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are broadly three types of models that are commonly used in this field. These are the parametric "SEIR" models (making estimates across populations based upon the number of people who are susceptible - not yet infected but who could be, exposed - those who are exposed, but not yet positive, infected, and removed - those no longer at risk or ill because they either have recovered, or are dead), agent-based models (in a nut-shell, simulations not unlike the old game Sim City, where a population is created with an initial number of infected people, where the transmission can occur if an infected and uninfected person encounter one another, and then the populations are followed over time until resolution), and curve-fitting models (of the sort the IHME is).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In my career working as an epidemiologist and statistician, I have worked with all three types. (To be more precise, SEIR actually has as a subgroup, SIR, where "exposed" people are collapsed and distributed into the population). Each has its strengths and weaknesses. All require assumptions to be made. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Most recently, I worked on a team modelling the impact of the introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV. We used an agent-based model largely because we simply lacked the right amount of information about movement from compartments in an SEIR model, and thought that the agent-based approach allowed for better hedging against some of the assumptions, as well as being easier to test the assumptions through what in mathematics is called <i>probabilistic sensitivity analysis, or PSA</i> - re-running thousands of mini simulations where the assumptions, rather than being held fixed, themselves are allowed to be drawn from a random distribution.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While I agree with, e.g., Dr Marc Lipsitch (who is one of the world's leading epidemiologists at Yale) that curve-fitting models of this type are unorthodox in epidemiology, I think it's a useful tool.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A lot of hype surrounded the initial projections of the Imperial College in London (a group I, personally, have worked with in the past) that somewhere north of 2 million would die without mitigation. That projection was derived from an SEIR model. Of course, the US has deployed a series of increasingly strict shelter in place initiatives, and that projection almost surely is going to be "wrong" by an order of magnitude.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Statistician George Box once observed, decades ago, that all models are wrong, but some models are useful.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">All of the competing models are going to be "wrong" in the end. But what use do they provide now?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">First, they give us some parameters on where the pandemic is going. It's not certainty - <i>pace</i> Box - but the projections give us some space to work with. And most provide, in addition to the projections, confidence intervals (or credible intervals) that give a range of what is likely to happen. The less certainty, the wider the bands. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When reading the projections, you ignore these bands at your peril.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I don't want to weigh in on which is "right," because frankly, they are all going to be wrong. Paraphrasing Tolstoy, while projections that are right are right in the same way, wrong models are wrong in their own way.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Here is a sampling of a few competing approaches.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Columbia University in New York have <a href="https://behcolumbia.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flattening-the-curve-before-it-flattens-us-20200405b.pdf">built an SEIR model</a> to estimate mortality and ICU usage under differing scenarios of mitigation. Estimates ranged from 6800 (with extreme social distancing) up to over 400,000 under strong mitigation. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="https://covid19.gleamproject.org/#model">Northeastern University have produced an agent-based model here </a>that offers a few scenarios for 'stay at home' mitigation. Its most recent projections are that, by mid-May, approximately 70,000 people will lose their lives. The uncertainty range is 42,000 to as many as 127,000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Unfortunately, they do not project beyond then, but given the rate of decline of the curves, barring a second flare up, the final mortality is going to be around that number.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A <a href="https://covid19-projections.com/us">late entry is from a team at MIT</a>, who have an unorthodox approach similar to an SEIR model, but that does not presume priors for initial transmission risk (the famous Ro), but "learns" from the data. That, and other key parameters.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This model is something of an outlier, in two ways. First, while other approaches cease projecting past the "first wave," which is estimated to be more or less over between late June and early July (even for the MIT model), the data scientists at MIT incorporate a second wave - one that will begin to grow in about middle July. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This echo will add about 25 to 30,000 deaths. It could result in as many as 280,000 when the dust settles.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The first wave is projected, as of now, to kill 104,000 or so by the end of June. The range here is anywhere from 70,000 to 170,000. This is a large outlier from the others.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What then, are the take-aways?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My own preference is agent-based, for no particular reason other than familiarity. The lone agent-based simulation pegs mortality at around 70,000 in the first wave. The team did not project a second, which isn't to say that there won't be one.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The IHME model is now projecting about 66,000 (range or 45-125,000), which is, if not the same as the Northeastern model, in the same neighbourhood. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One piece of good news is that the models, with the exception of MITs AI model, are converging around similar stories. The fact that the models, using different presumptions and different approaches, net out to a similar result at this stage (we are still three months from July), is a sort of empirical validation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And it looks like, as of now, mortality is more than likely going to land somewhere between 60,000 and maybe 100,000 at the top end. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It could be worse, of course. It could be <i>much worse.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The second thing to glean is that social distancing and mitigation <i>are working</i>. All models are converging down, not up, with additional data. The sacrifices we are making are actually, as of now, writing a very different - and brighter - narrative than the story as it was unfolding a few weeks ago.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Keep staying home. Keep distancing yourself. Keep good hygiene.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's <i>working.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Finally, as the MIT model indicates, we need to be especially vigilant in the later summer. If there is a second wave - and there is every reason to believe that one could come, it is going to be <i>absolutely essential</i> that our public health professionals keep a damned close eye.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />And it means our political leaders need to be ready to sound the alarm if there is even a whiff of an outbreak.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And it means we as citizens need to listen - and we need to obey - when we are asked to observe stay at home orders, and not go to the hair salon. It's that simple.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Treatments are coming. Vaccines are coming. It will not be tomorrow.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again, it's worth saying, by our actions, we are choosing our own future. </span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-1118323201959945092020-04-08T23:04:00.001+02:002020-04-08T23:04:37.402+02:00Keep on Keeping On - Day 24<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus) continues. It's a pandemic, which means, of course, that it now is just about everywhere.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As I've said a few times now, I am an epidemiologist, which means that my work focuses on public health. I've spent most of my professional life creating and abstracting information from models.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The president last week warned Americans that the coming days were going to be very difficult, and that admonition has not been wrong.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The news, while terrible, is not completely bleak.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am following a number of analytical sources each day, trying my best to understand the evolution of the crisis. Two in particular are, I find useful.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The first - <a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily">the COVID Tracking Project </a>- is provided by a group of journalists, initially led by Robinson Meyer and Alexis Madrigal at <i>The Atlantic</i>. It tracks state-by-state reported statistics on total tests done, how many are positive, how many are negative, how many tests remain to be resolved (results confirmed and reported), how many patients are hospitalized, and how many people have died.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The former are critical from an epidemiology perspective, as we get a feel for the cumulative impact, and importantly, the day over day change. We hear a lot about "bending the curve." For this, the <i>rate of change</i> is a key metric; at least as much as the cumulative impact. The cumulative impact details the past - something we cannot change. The rate of change is more immediate, and can be impacted by choices that we make today.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The latter is important because tracking hospitalization gives us a much deeper view into <i>how the disease is actually manifesting. </i>As is now well-known, about half or so of people who get infected are either totally without symptoms, or have mild to moderate symptoms. They don't require hospital, and overwhelmingly will recover. For these people, COVID-19 will be an unpleasant experience. It won't be a fatal one. The more severe cases - ones that require hospitalization, or worse, ICU admission - are the ones that really drive the magnitude of the fear. These are virtually all of the patients who will die. They are the ones who will compete for resources.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I recommend to bookmark and check their data each day.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The second is a project run by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)</a>, a research centre at the University of Washington in Seattle. As an aside, I know, personally, more than one person at the University of Washington Department of Biostatistics, and it is one of the best in the world.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This team uses reported data on infections, mortality (death), hospital admissions, ICU admission, and ventilator demand to model the trajectory of disease. Data at one point were updated nearly daily. Updates now are regular, but not quite at the level.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is one of the models the US government looks at when making decisions on resource planning, and it is the one that Dr Deborah Birx often refers to in the daily press briefings.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Like the COVIDtracking group, the IHME estimate, on a state by state basis, current predicted hospital loads and mortality. But they go a level deeper - projections are made on admissions to ICU and itubations (need for mechanical ventilation). The latter two are critical to understand the ability for our health care systems to meet life-saving demands of the infected population.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Predictions on mortality are also offered.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You can go to the site and see how your state is "doing" with respect to mortality and demand vs. resource needs.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Initially, the model predicted that mortality in the US would grow, slowly at first, then rapidly (a classic exponential growth model) until mid to late April, plateauing, and then falling until about June. When the statistical dust settled, it forecast around 100,000 deaths in the country, with a range of 75,000 to 250,000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Those are <i>terrible</i> numbers.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">About 95% of the country is now under direction to observe "social distancing" - an awkward phrase that really just means "separate yourself, <i>physically,</i> by about six feet from other people." It means to stay home unless essential - going to the grocery store, for example. And it means being vigilant about hand washing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The results are starting to come in.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Friday, the predicted mortality of the US from this forecast model was about 95,000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Monday, when updates were available, that number had fallen to 81,000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The latest news this morning puts the estimated number at just over 60,000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That's a lot of people. But it's a third less than the initial estimates.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Actions taken by people are starting to show results. The mortality curve <i>is </i>flattening. Here is how it looks as of today:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNaX93YtL7NniHMdy2sOeIIJwM_AG8byiscrpKmlAhuxLigKt9yBh7m-Td1_sErPMu0p7IbSnbhi94lZpQ5XP7Ujv_Z-NY6JaPAAhYrtugIUkMIQ925fwETq098rM1wg3xzs4mx-EezImC/s1600/IHME+8+April.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="730" data-original-width="1600" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNaX93YtL7NniHMdy2sOeIIJwM_AG8byiscrpKmlAhuxLigKt9yBh7m-Td1_sErPMu0p7IbSnbhi94lZpQ5XP7Ujv_Z-NY6JaPAAhYrtugIUkMIQ925fwETq098rM1wg3xzs4mx-EezImC/s640/IHME+8+April.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The coloured range should get your attention - this is a band of uncertainty (remember; these are mathematical models). The current situation has a range of about 40,000 to as much as 130,000 dead. The total mortality <i>could turn out to be 130,000</i>, even given where we are now.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">These are, it's worth noting, models. As Dr Fauci noted, models have utility, but data are better. Statistician George Box famously quipped that all models are wrong, but some are useful. For me, this model is quite useful.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You'll also note that the line is solid until today - this is the historical data. The dotted line are projections. If that solid line trends back up, projected mortality is going to go up even more.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I re-iterate the point I've made a dozen times.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">HOW this plays out is up to you. It's your choice. It's your future.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The final narrative is ours - whether it's a scary and terrible chapter, or a catastrophe.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">These data are a hopeful sign. But they also should be a warning.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Stay home.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-57778621235005877172020-04-08T04:59:00.004+02:002020-04-08T18:10:06.896+02:00A Few Questions (and Answers, I Hope) about Hydroxychloriquine<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Apologies for what is likely to be a very, very dry post today. We are living in strange days; better ones are coming. The comments to follow are not political. They should not be seen as endorsing one political narrative versus another.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As Queen Elizabeth (channeling Vera Lynn circa 1939), we will meet again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">CAVEAT: I am <i>not a medical doctor</i>. I am an epidemiologist. It is (and has been, for 26 years) my day to day job to build, run, and abstract the results from disease models. I've run analytics of randomized clinical trials. I have helped prepare (and been a subject matter expert for questions from) the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But I am not a "scientist." I would not question the medical expertise of a doctor, whose job it is to make medical decisions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let me say, with no ambiguity or equivocation, that <b><i>ANY </i>decision </b>(yes or no) people make about medical care <b>absolutely should be made in <i><u>consultation with a doctor</u></i></b>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the past few days, there has been a lot of talk in the news and the popular press about the use of hydroxychloroquine (with or without azithromycin) to treat people suffering from infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The US president has made many statements in support of it. People in the press have attacked his comments.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">There is, I think, a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding about these medicines, why there is some belief that they help treat COVID-19 (the illness associated with SARS-CoV-2), the risks of the medications, and frankly, what is going on.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What is COVID-19? </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">First, you hear "COVID-19," "coronavirus," and, to a lesser extent, "SARS-Cov-2" used interchangeably. They aren't.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>COVID-19</i> is a terminology resulting from the abbreviation resulting from "<b><u>co</u></b>rona<b>vi</b>rus <u style="font-weight: bold;">d</u>isease" (COVID), concatenated with 19, the year (2019) it was identified. This is a standard way that the World Health Organisation (whose job it is to come up with the nomenclature) assign.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>Coronavirus</i> is a heuristic to describe a family of viruses (of which this particular strain is included) that are so called due to their physical structure - a central structure that houses the RNA (essentially, viruses are primitive structures of genetic material) with spiky projections that make the virus look like a crown. The word "corona" means "crown," in the original Latin.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>SARS-CoV-2</i> is an abbreviation for "SARS-CoV" (severe, acute respiratory syndrome, of the coronavirus type). It is a strongly believed to be a close genetic cousin of the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2005, hence the "2." The name was implemented by the International Committee on the Taxonomy of Viruses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So briefly, the <i>virus</i> is SARS-CoV-2; the illness it provokes is COVID-19. Think of it in parallel that HIV is the virus that causes people to get sick. AIDS was the disease that resulted. It's not a perfect metaphor (and thankfully, with highly effective treatment, these days, people with HIV infection can suppress infection and avoid AIDS).</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What is hydroxychloroquine?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Hydroxychlorquine is a medication that was first approved for use by the FDA in 1955. It is in the family of antimalarial drugs called aminoquinolines. Its first use was for treating malaria; later, it was approved by FDA for use in treating Lupus (SLE), and rheumatoid arthritis. Its activity against infection was well-established in its early days against malaria. How, exactly, it works with RA is still not well understood.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Hydroxychloroquine is known under a brand name called "Plaquenil."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It is on the WHO List of Essential Medicines - a list of what the WHO describes as the safest and most effective medications that are essential to basic health for a health system. These represent well-established and basic for the key population health needs. There are currently approximately 500 medications on this list.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What is azithromycin?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Azithromycin is an antibiotic (medications that are used to kill bacterial infections) called a macrolide antibiotic. It has broad activity against a host of GRAM positive (and some, more serious GRAM negative) bacteria, and is widely used for inner ear infections, community acquired bacterial pneumonia, skin infections, and some respiratory and throat infections. It was first approved for use in the USA in 1988.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Azihtromycin is marketed under the brand name Zithromax; often, it is sold in seven or 10 days packages called "Z Pack."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Azithromycin is, like hydroxychoroquine, on the WHO list of essential medications.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Why has hydroxychloroquine been suggested for COVI-19?</b></span><br />
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There are several problems with Dr Raoult's study. The first is that the sample size is very small. Only 42 patients is too small a sample for any regulatory body to approve a medication for use.</span><br />
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The results are encouraging.</span><br />
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One of the controversies not said in the US media is that Dr Raoult is not without controversy. He is a highly respected infectious disease doctors. He was named one of the ten leading researchers in all of France by <i>Nature </i>magazine, and has published two thousand peer-reviewed manuscripts in his career. He was awarded, in 2010, with the <i>Grand Prix de l'INSERM (Institut National de la Sante et de la Receherce Medicale</i>), the French national institute for health research.</span><br />
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ALL medications have adverse events. When FDA approve drugs, it is implicitly understood that there are risks. When medicines are approved, FDA (and other regulators) are asked to balance the risk/benefit calculus - is the <i>benefit</i> that the medication greater than <i>the risk associated</i>?</span><br />
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Frequent complaints on the news are about how the use of hydroxychloroqine as an intervention represents bad, or at the least incomplete, science. Dr Anthony Fauci, who, with Dr Deborah Birx, are the medical experts informing our government's response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. Dr Fauci is one of the leading experts in the country on infectious disease. He earned his <i>bona fides</i> over the years working in HIV disease, as did Dr Birx. His opinion absolutely must be respected.</span><br />
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Medications are "approved" for use by regulators - in the US, by the FDA. When they are approved, there is a very detailed "label," and more in what is called a package insert - the little paper in six point Courier type in the bottle - that describe the indication (the disease its use is "approved" for), side effects observed by more than 1% of patients in the trial, the clinical trial data, dosing, and other details.</span><br />
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COVID-19 is a very serious problem. As of this writing, 400,000 Americans have been diagnosed. 13,000 have lost their lives.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A small, observational study was conducted by the French infectious disease expert called Didier Raoult at his hospital in Marseille, France (<i>Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire</i>, or IHU) in which he treated 42 patients who had been admitted to his hospital with COVID-19, at various severity of disease. 26 of the patients received hydroxychloroqine. 16 received 'standard of care,' which is to say, palliative care. Six of the 26 in the treatment arm had azihtromycin added to their treatment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The results were published by Dr Raoult in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents in mid-March 2020.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dr Raoult reported that 14/20 (70%) of the treatment arm were reported free of viral loads at six days following inclusion. In the control arm, just two had this outcome (12.5%).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is a stark result, and is certainly, from the perspective of statistics, an encouraging number.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So, what is the controversy?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Second, the study was not a 'randomised control trial' (RCT). This is the gold-standard for the research and approval of medications in the US (FDA), the EU (European Medicines Agency, or EMA), Canada (Health Canada), and most other industrialised nations on earth. It involves "double blinding" (enrolling patients into the trial into arms that neither the subject nor the investigator knows is which) that are broken only at the end to control for biases. Dr Raoult's study was "open label" (subjects and doctors knew who was in the treatment arm, and who was in the control arm), and it was observational (meaning that there was no attempt, through randomisation, to allocate patients into the two arms to balance things like underlying health, age, and other factors that can bias results).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Third (and in my view an under-reported problem) is that the study was not an intent to treat (or modified intent to tread) analysis. Dr Raoult reported that 14/20 patients (and 6/6 of those on both hydroxychloroquine AND azithromycin) recovered. In fact, there were six patients lost to follow up, and not included in the calculations. Three of these in fact <i>died </i>(of their infection, not side effects). Three others did not complete treatment. So the results reported (70% efficacy) represent a sort of survivor bias. In fact, 14/26 (54%) recovered. That's much less exciting than the numbers broadcast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The study in effect was very small, uncontrolled, and had design issues. People are <i>right to be sceptical of these results.</i></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Who is Dr Raoult</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">A significant part of the backstory that frequently remains unsaid in the US media is that Dr Raoult is not without controversy. He is a highly respected infectious disease doctors. He was named one of the ten leading researchers in all of France by Nature magazine, and has published two thousand peer-reviewed manuscripts in his career. He was awarded, in 2010, with the Grand Prix de l'INSERM (Institut National de la Sante et de la Receherce Medicale), the French national institute for health research.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">He is, in short, an acclaimed doctor and researcher.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But he is idiosyncratic. In 2013, he ventured outside his lane and questioned climate change, which drew widespread ire and scorn.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What role is there in the arguments about safety?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are among the most prescribed medications in the world. If you are over the age of five, it is almost certain that you have taken azithromycin at some point. Of course it has risks - the most significant, perhaps, is that it causes QT prolongation - a heart condition that can result in irregular heartbeat. This is a real, but rare risk.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It is not zero.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The reality is, most of the "side effects" of the treatment are things like nausea, rash, and headache. These are the types of common 'adverse events' reported in most clinical trials. Anecdotally, of the trials I have run analyses on, nausea, headache, diarrhoea, and rash have in every case been the most common events reported.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What about the 'science?'</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But people, I think, are either misunderstanding what Dr Fauci is saying, or they are distorting it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">He is a scientist as well as a doctor. His comments reflect that the only way, really, to establish the efficacy of a treatment right now is via RCTs. Randomisation is simply the best way to mitigate sampling and other biases. Using control arms are the best way to establish placebo effects.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In a perfect world, of course we would conduct multiple RCTs. And I suspect that we will. Many are right now going on, and the results will be in.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The problem is, we simply do not have the luxury of time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I am old enough to remember life before the advent of effective HIV therapies (in fact, not that long ago). 25 years ago, when antiretroviral therapies (ARV) had not been discovered, the criticisms of FDA among others were that they were <i>too slow to react</i> and were obstructing treatments.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">HIV activists were, at the time, highly critical of Dr Fauci for just this reason.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dr Fauci's is right to be conservative. It is part of his job to question whether this approach will work.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But people need to listen to what he is actually saying rather than what they think he is.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Basically, the treatments have side effects, but they have been in use for decades, and are on the whole, pretty safe. They don't have no risk, but the risks are well-known. What we don't know is the actual efficacy, which the RCTs will establish.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Thus, in deciding whether or not to treat, patients should consult their doctors; medical expertise should decide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In short, talk with your doctor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Both hydroxychloroqine and azithromycin require a doctor's prescription. You cannot walk into Safeway and pick it up as if it were aspirin.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What does it mean for a drug to be "approved?" What is off-label use?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Medications are not "approved." They are approved for specific diseases. Adalimumab (Humira), for example, is "approved" for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, ulcerative colitis, and a few other autoimmune disorders.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Doctors can - and frequently do - prescribe medications for disease not specifically indicated in the label. This is called "off label use."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The laws of the US presume that the best person to decide care for a patient is his or her doctor - a medical expert who knows the specifics <i>of the patient before him or her </i>- and is best positioned to understand the nuances, risks, and benefits to make the best <i>medical</i> decision.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is, again, why it is critical for patients to talk to - and listen to - the opinions of their doctors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Right now, you cannot get access to hydroxychloroquine - whether for an approved use (Lupus) or off-label (COVID-19) without your doctor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Bottom Line</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The reality is, those numbers are going to end up being much higher.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I don't know that hydroxychloroquine (with or without azithromycin) is effective. The initial evidence is encouraging, but it remains to be seen if this will be borne out in larger studies.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I <i>do know</i> that both have some risks, but those risks are pretty small. The risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 is many orders of magnitude higher.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We hear, every day, about ventilators. And it's true that they are essential. Without them, virtually all of those who require invasive ventilation would die.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But they are not a cure. Data right now indicate that, of those going in ventilators, mortality is 30-50%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I worked, 10 years ago, in Phase II (dose-ranging) studies for a novel treatment of Lupus. One of the comparators we used was Plaquenil. Safety for Plaquenil was something we evaluated versus our treatment. But it was not the driving factor. Not close.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">If <i>I </i>were to test positive for the virus, I personally would not immediately turn to this unproven therapy. But if I were to be put in the hospital, I would seriously talk to my doctor about it. And I would absolutely listen to what the doctor said.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The claims by the president that "you have nothing to lose" by trying hydroxychoroquibe are false.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But given that we have <i>nothing</i> else in the armamentarium right now means that I would think long and hard about the novel treatments <i>before</i> I required a ventilator.</span></div>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-89228710262036664352020-03-31T02:52:00.002+02:002020-03-31T03:12:37.336+02:00Just Do It<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<img alt="American troops approaching Omaha Beach on Normandy Beach, D-Day ..." height="228" src="https://www.goodfreephotos.com/albums/historical-battles/world-war-ii/american-troops-approaching-omaha-beach-on-normandy-beach-d-day-world-war-ii.jpg" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Seventy six years ago, in the early hours of an early spring morning, young men from the various allied nations loaded themselves into a series of sequentially numbered metal delivery vessels off the southern coast of England. The ask of them was not complex, but it was difficult.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The potential future of the world depended in no small part in their execution of that ask.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It was simple, but it was not easy. Many knew that they would not even make it to the dry land. But they went.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">When asked, they responded.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As a people, no-one in my generation, or those above or below us, has seen a moment quite like that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Our moment is here.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">There is another enemy, but it doesn't wear spit-shined boots. It does not confront us with Panzers or Messerchmitts or Junkers. It is not led by an evil man with bent symbols and a toothbrush moustache.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As of this moment, according to data being tracked <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">here</a> by the Johns Hopkins University, more than three quarters of a million people in the world have contracted the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19). In the US, we now have 164,000 confirmed cases.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Both numbers are likely an order of magnitude wrong at this point.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We've all seen the images from Italy. Many have seen the devastating numbers in Spain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Six years ago, during the last viral outbreak (Ebola, at the time), I wrote this about the treats our ancient enemies (viruses and bacteria) present:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>There has been a number of movies and books with doomsday stories. In order of decreasing likelihood, the list includes asteroids crashing into the earth. Widespread terrorist attacks, nuclear war. zombie apocalypse. The first is a virtual certainty given sufficient time; the last is, despite an actual epidemiological simulation run at a reputable university in Canada, not ever going to happen outside the imagination of George A. Romero or Rick Grimes. I am not particularly concerned about any of these. But one thing I do actually have on my fear radar is a viral or bacteriological plague. </i><i><br /></i></span><br />
<i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In short, we are overdue - WAY overdue - for a thinning of the herd, so to speak. The last really great plague was the so-called Spanish Influenza of the early 20th century. What? No. SARS does not count. In 1918, the flu infected nearly a half billion people, killing around 20% of them. 100 million dead is a lot of people just on its face. But considering that the world population then was only about two billion, the Spanish Influenza killed around one out of every 20 people on earth.</span></i></blockquote>
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Stay home.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Wash your hands.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Avoid unnecessary travel.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is not a drill.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">SARS-CoV-2 is not likely to be the Spanish flu (and we should be on our hands and knees being thankful for this); but we need to take this seriously.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I repeat - if the epidemiology from 1918 plays out here today, more than one hundred million people around the world are going to die in the next 18 months.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This does <i>not</i> need to be our future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We are <i>not</i> merely ships tossed on a tumultuous sea of fate and fortune.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Here in California, our governor ordered a state-wide "shelter in place" more than two weeks ago. He made it clear why this was so. And he reminds us, daily, that our future is in our hands.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Like the soldiers who hit the beaches of Normandy in 1944, we have been called. The ask of us, like them, is not complex.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We aren't being asked to load into troop transports pre-dawn. We are not asked to face enemy fire. We are not asked to storm dug-in positions on a beach in a faraway land.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We are asked essentially <i>to do nothing</i>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And unlike those soldiers, if we follow orders, most of us are going to come out unharmed.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Our moment. Our choice. Our future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Here is a simple breakdown of the course of disease, from initial infection to resolution.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWe_Ly08BfC-y6IcgHw-eXv82UhnoXHxoYR794CLHg0RgZAAr32xrHDuPfUiJyg0M20seG1tHErJFKyAUyrUnP_FvZFVfGg1a7MxhVsT_TEKuNXeGmgXMDQX3c1ltA1ukLHp-SGES0Ls2q/s1600/COVI+EPi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="195" data-original-width="447" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWe_Ly08BfC-y6IcgHw-eXv82UhnoXHxoYR794CLHg0RgZAAr32xrHDuPfUiJyg0M20seG1tHErJFKyAUyrUnP_FvZFVfGg1a7MxhVsT_TEKuNXeGmgXMDQX3c1ltA1ukLHp-SGES0Ls2q/s400/COVI+EPi.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">For <i>most </i>of us, SARS-CoV-2 represents a fairly mild problem. 85 per cent of us fall into the top two cohorts. Most who are infected will have no (30%) or mild to moderate (55%) symptoms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A small number (10%) will have severe symptoms, and will require hospitalisation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Fewer still will have critical symptoms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">ALL of those who are infected will have a period where we are contagious. Even those who have <i>no symptoms at all </i>will, for about three weeks, be able to infect other people.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Critically, those in the 5 and 10 per cent cohorts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And here is the rub. Of those who land in the critical cohort, current data are that fully half will die. In the severe cohort, estimates are that 15% (one in about six) are also going to die.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">These two skew heavily into groups who are older (over 60) and/or those who have other underlying conditions. Asthma. Diabetes. Immuno-compromise.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Many people are discovering that they have "underlying conditions" <i>after they are diagnosed with COVID-19.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But you are going to know someone who does.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">By these estimates, crudely, if half the critical cohort (5% of the population) and 1/6 of the severe cohort (10%) are at risk of death, that's about four per cent of the population.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">SOMEONE you care about is in that group.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let me put that another way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Think of twenty people that you know. Your mother. Your uncle. Your sister. Your daughter. A teacher you're fond of from when you were young.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">If this model holds true, one of them <i>is not going to be alive in a year if you don't stay home.</i></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Maybe you're young. Maybe you're healthy. Chances are pretty good that you're not going to get terribly sick.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Do you have someone in your life that you want to nominate to be taken away by this? I don't.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The movie does not have to end this way. There is no need to panic; there is absolutely a need to act.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Stay home. Wash your hands. Avoid unnecessary travel.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Our moment. Our choice. Our future.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Please stay home.</span></div>
<i><br /></i>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-35256980951537347232020-02-13T23:46:00.000+01:002020-02-14T00:42:05.641+01:00Like Clockwork<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Today is one that's been on the calendar for a long time. In truth, since calendars were made of course, but from my own personal calendar, since 2000.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">One of the advantages of being born in a zero year (I was born in 1970) is that the maths for the milestone years are a bit easier.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As a result, in the year 2000, I turned 30 years old. While the rest of the world was exhaling from the fact that we achieved the year without the computers simultaneously exploding and taking the developed world with them, I woke that day 20 years ago to the idea that I was finally, officially, a <i>bona fide </i>adult.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I've written a couple of times on the topic, but I clearly remember that birthday. My mother was visiting me in my home (in those days) in San Jose, California. The day began with some showers, but the sun came out. We spent lunch at Valley Fair Mall (now "Westfield Shoppingtown") where we grabbed a quick meal and a tiffany lamp for the house. On the way home, we stopped at the San Jose Municipal Rose Garden (which was one of my favourite spots in the city) before returning for dinner. Even at 30, it was a nice treat to have my mother prepare my favourite meal for a birthday.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I remember thinking that 30 was a milestone because I know longer thought of myself (or referred to my friends as) a "kid." All the trappings of adulthood of course existed already - real job, dog, house and mortgage. I had done my taxes already several times. I had a retirement fund. But now, there was no going back.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">After all, 30 was the age when people in the 1970s cult film "Logan's Run" faced the final curtain.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But I also thought of the reality that at some point, I was actually going to <i>be</i> 40. And then 50. 40 came and went a decade ago.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">50 arrived today.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Those who know me are already aware that my hobby is my 1952 MG. It's not "modern" in any way - 54 BHp engine, no power steering, no top. All its workings are mechanical.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I got the car for my 40th birthday, and from time to time, I am in the garage working on this or that 'thing' that decides in its uniquely British way that it just no longer wants to work properly.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The car was already 18 years old when I was <i>born</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the past decade, certain parts have just...worn out.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">About 8 years ago, one of the carburettors developed a hairline crack, so it had to be replaced. It took a while, but I found a spare in Oxfordshire, England - ironically just a few miles from Abingdon, where the car was made. The factory was closed in 1980 or so, and now, a Starbuck's is where the cars used to roll off of the assembly line.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A carburettor is a device that <i>used to exist in cars</i> that more or less functions the way that your lungs do. Gasoline - the life's blood of an internal combustion engine - is mixed with air before being sucked into the ignition chamber, where the two are combined with a spark to drive the piston, and then, the car itself. If the carbs leak air, or are out of balance, your car will gasp in much the same way that you will if your lungs aren't working.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Two years ago, the starter's solenoid needed replacement. That was an easier "find" - an OEM still manufactures Lucas knock-offs online. A week later, the old one was out and the new, in. Back on the road.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In time, I've also replaced the dynamo, an oil line, and an odometer cable.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A 70 year old car has 70 year old parts that fail. But those parts can be replaced. So it will remain on the road as long as I have the interest in keeping it going (and the physical ability to do so). At some point, I hope that my son (now 14) will be interested in it, and I can give it to him. When he was six or so years old, he "helped" me replace the broken carb.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A human being is in one sense, a collection of parts. Some can be replaced easily, some not so easily. One of other off-time activities is running. 11 years ago, <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2009/10/just-facts-maam.html">I wrote a brief blurb about it here</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In 1998, I was able to run 2000 km in a year. At the time, I could pretty easily keep a seven minute per mile pace. Pushing it was 40 minutes for a 10km (about 6.30 per mile).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">At 40, I could <i>keep</i> a seven minute per mile pace, but it was not easy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Age and wear and tear slow you down.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Last year (2019), I was able to log about 500 miles total And my goal is now eight minutes per mile. I get the occasional leg injury (pain in the heel of my foot, a strained gastrocnemius). These injuries take much longer to recover than they did. A tweak used to put me on the shelf for a week, maybe two. This past fall, leg tightness meant reduced activity for two <i>months</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Unlike the car, I cannot go out and get a new lung, or replace a leg. Joints can be replaced with titanium, but they honestly aren't the same.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I used to laugh when my father would fall asleep in our green armchair in the living room after dinner. Last night, I was sitting on our sofa and briefly nodded off. Dad was 53 when he died, so he never was really an old man, even though I thought of him as one for most of our shared time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Today, I'm fifty years old. And despite the fact that my own parts don't work as well as they used to, I am ok with it.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-83569003630157461222020-01-22T01:59:00.003+01:002020-01-22T01:59:53.463+01:00For Though Your Dreams May Toss and Turn You Now<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Today is the 21st of January. For most of the world, one of 365 days (or in this Leap Year, 366) in the calendar. Another page on and another off.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However, for my family, today is my father's birthday. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dad's been gone for 26 years as of this coming July. More than half of my life. My own birthday is up on just over three weeks. This is a big one for me, but mainly because people think in base 10 (I suppose because, per Tom Lehrer, for those of us not missing two fingers...)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Many years ago, I thought my father was a big man. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That he was the strongest person in the world. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought he knew just about everything. We used to watch "Jeopardy!" on television every night after dinner, and I was amazed at how many of the questions he could get right. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As I got bigger, I found out, one by one, that of course, none of these things was true. Dad was six feet tall and 155 pounds on a good day - hardly the biggest man in the world. More than once, as I got older, I could lift and do things that he couldn't. And there were times when, Jimmy Stewart to the side, I went to dad for an answer and even between the two of us, we could not find it. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have my own son who once looked at me in the same way. I was the big person who knew the answers to everything. Now, my own son is an inch taller than I am (he's 14, so he caught and passed me; I never reached my father's height). Years ago, he started asking questions I could not answer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But while my father was not the biggest man in the world, and he did not have all the answers, he always remained the most important man in my life.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When I was young, I thought dad was an old man, which I suppose all kids do. He lost his battle to cancer in 1994. He was three years older then than I am right now. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dad never got to be an old man.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With the passing of time, I've found, as everyone does, that with each year - with each day - I have fewer and fewer plans and more and more memories. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I think about dad often. Today, he would have been 79.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Happy birthday dad. I miss you a lot. </span></div>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-69516252827343170062019-02-27T01:59:00.002+01:002019-02-27T02:00:12.169+01:00Scars Are Souvenirs You Never Lose<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZWWgfklSm5j5X-2ugGedMoNUownSF1Ubv156GGaOVW__hTjJoirq6X0Uy_F5q7RpmTJXF9AOkJx5c7SB0tcViGO3uBYRWiOgC_1KrzKMJPZrSYz2E_1liaIB7Hvhy-CH7r3G_FkQO6uQ6/s1600/Photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZWWgfklSm5j5X-2ugGedMoNUownSF1Ubv156GGaOVW__hTjJoirq6X0Uy_F5q7RpmTJXF9AOkJx5c7SB0tcViGO3uBYRWiOgC_1KrzKMJPZrSYz2E_1liaIB7Hvhy-CH7r3G_FkQO6uQ6/s1600/Photo.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">No one ever takes a photograph of something they want to forget</span></i></td></tr>
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Over dinner last night, I was having a conversation with my wife about a family friend. The friend, not unlike us (and you, I suspect) is fond of posting images on social media. The pictures show <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">smiling faces, fun in the sun. A nice meal. A fantastic sunset.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">People are smiling. Always smiling.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Many people today are talking as well about the scene of Academy Award-nominated actor Bradley Cooper exchanging a silent but loving look with "Lady Ga Ga", his co-star from the recent movie remake of <i>A Star Is Born.</i> Of course, Cooper and "Ga Ga" are professional actors, and they are paid to feign emotion. And quite skilful at it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I remarked to my wife, people on Facebook, Instagram, and other social media project a certain idealized image of the life that they wish that they had.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is not to say that they are not happy. It does not mean the emotion in the photos is false. But images online capture the soft light that shines into our lives. What is missing from our digital footprints is the shadows that fall on us all.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">How are our actual lives stacked up against the way we want the world to see them?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Several years ago, there was a film released called <i>One Hour Photo</i>. For those who came of age in the era of digital photography, in the olden days (like, pre-2005), people took pictures using cameras with actual film in them. The rolls were taken to drug stores or to speciality photo printing shops to be printed. You dropped the roll of film and a couple of days later, went to retrieve the prints.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For an additional fee, you could get them back, as the title indicated, in one hour - a rush job.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I think most of the PhotoMats of my youth are long gone.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In an odd, against-type casting, Robin Williams played a character named Sy Parrish, who worked developing other people’s pictures. The movie opens with a soliloquy by Parrish:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Family photos depict smiling faces... births, weddings, holidays, children's birthday parties. People take pictures of the happy moments in their lives. Someone looking through our photo album would conclude that we had led a joyous, leisurely existence free of tragedy. No one ever takes a photograph of something they want to forget.</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I liked the movie, though it comes to rather an unhappy and surprising end. But this observation has stayed with me since then.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“No one ever takes a photograph of something they want to forget.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Therein lies your answer. <i>No one</i> is as happy as they appear in their on-line world.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That is the ugly truth of life.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-77952577890920002482019-02-14T02:19:00.001+01:002019-02-14T02:19:50.406+01:00Another Year<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Today is the 13th of February, which for those who know me, means that the odometer today clicks another digit over. Any one year is not significantly different from the last, but after a few revolutions, the chassis has picked up more than a few miles.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This year (49) is not a mile-stone year by any stretch. 49 is not even a prime number, so it's just another footnote in the stats almanac and not "black ink" as baseball writer Bill James liked to say.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's today a rainy, stormy day here in San Francisco (speaking of 49ers). It reminds me a bit of my 30th birthday, which (incredibly) is now nearly two decades ago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I turned 30 in the year 2000, which made it especially auspicious. Remember the Y2K scare? How silly we all felt when really, nothing happened?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That February, like this one, saw a <i>lot</i> of rain. The Bay Area is close to a desert in terms of annual rainfall, but we do get between 15 and 20 inches of rain in a year. But that rainfall is packed into a couple of months of the winter. For eight or so months per year, we typically do not even get a cloud in the sky, fog excepted.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I remember how wet it was in 2000. I remember more than that that my mother was visiting me. At the time, I was living in San Jose, California, in a sub-division called "Naglee Park." For my 30th birthday, I took the day off. My mother and I spent the middle part of the day getting lunch and then at the Municipal Rose Garden, just west of downtown. The Rose Garden is a beautiful park in central San Jose, with crushed gravel parkways, some sculptures and topiaries, and of course, rows and rows of roses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's the sort of place you might expect in a European city more than the self-described "Capital of Silicon Valley."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It was rather a stormy week (much like today), and in fact, it began to sprinkle. So we went to the Valley Fair shopping centre nearby for some shelter. My mother got me a Tiffany glass mission-style table lamp as a Christmas present before we headed home.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For dinner, my mother prepared my favourite meal - a recipe of oven barbecued pork spare ribs. She and I - and my dog Rowan - shared a birthday dinner.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I'm soon heading home from work, and that same menu is on for tonight. I'll share it with my wife and son. My dog Eiffel will get a bone if he behaves as well.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I still have that Tiffany lamp; it's on the dresser in my bedroom. I think about my 30th birthday when I see it each night.</span></div>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-77236528600088791752019-01-22T02:20:00.001+01:002019-01-22T02:20:44.766+01:00A Close Shave<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A lot of noise the past few days about a pretty quotidien item. The Gilette corporation last week unveiled an ad campaign that sought to ride along with the <i>zeitgeist</i> of the US. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Essentially, playing on the old tag line that the company's razor's were "the best a man can get," the piece opens with a series of men looking into the mirror, and asking if this really <i>is </i>the best we can do.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What follows is approximately two minutes of images of bullying, caddish and demeaning behaviour towards women, and a host of other less than stellar examples.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The spot has drawn a lot of criticism for its suggestion of what constitutes "toxic masculinity," much of it from people whom I would typically consider fellow travellers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Up-front, I want to say that I find the term "toxic masculinity" equal parts trite, cliched, and false. There is nothing specifically "masculine" about bullying, as anyone who has seen the way girls emotionally torture one another as adolescents. And the same ad that points to cartoonish laughs of an old sit-com where the boss pinches the bottom of his secretary does not go on to talk at all about the staple in sit-coms of dad being basically a useless fool who does not know not to put ice cream in the microwave.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Both of these are outdated tropes that lazy Hollywood writers used in lieu of creativity for decades. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But setting aside the politics of the terminology, I have to say that what actually is <i>in the ads</i> is remarkably uncontroversial, isn't it? Who would argue that we can - and should - be better?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And what they are really showing here (again, cliches to the side) is <i>bullying</i> and how we facilitate it. Not "men," but all of us as a society. The image of kid, perceived by his peers to be weak, targeted and chased by a wolfpack. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I've written before <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2014/04/weak-meat-strong-eat.html">here </a>and <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2017/11/peter-and-wolf.html">here </a>about what I have seen, both as a kid and a parent. I <i>hate</i> bullying. I find it, among the pantheon of vices, perhaps the most despicable.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Chinese have an expression, 弱肉強食. It means, the weak are meat, the strong eat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I believe now as I did then, that w<span style="background-color: #f6f6f6;">e live in a society that likes to pretend that it is more refined than it really is. We believe that, if some bad guy tries to break into our house, the cops will get him. Or that white collar crooks who game the system can be constrained by ever more “regulation.” </span><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6;">For all of our rules and our therapists and our technological wonders, we are not so removed from what we have always been - human beings are tribal, violent creatures who over millennia have evolved skills to kill or be killed.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: #f6f6f6;">We live in a world of predators and prey. Kids can sense this.</span><br />The ad shows in each situation that small eyes watch and see. They observe how we act. What we are, they become.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />It's politically expedient today to talk in silly buzzwords about toxic masculinity and privilege. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But ultimately, what is being said is that we can do better. I don't have any problem with that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />We must do better.</span></div>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-72270110644106868462019-01-08T00:42:00.002+01:002019-01-08T00:42:57.231+01:00New Year New Look<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2018 is now officially in the books. The holidays are over. We've tossed out the final page of the old calendar, and now have 12 fresh, new pages to confront us.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am not one for resolutions; at this point, I have come to a sort of <i>detente </i>with time. Each year is, despite my best efforts, likely to be very similar to the one that just concluded, and ultimately, time is going to win anyways.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One thing that has changed - on the final day of the year, I went to have a new prescription for my glasses made. My last visit to the optometrist was in the end of 2016, so it was time. Like time, I am fighting a gradually losing battle with my vision, and thus, the glasses I got in December of 2016 are no longer up to the task. I could no longer read my monitor at work.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Worse still, my vision has now got to the point where I simply am unable to read anything in less than 20 point type unless I hold the thing an arm's length away. This does not work in restaurants (two weeks ago, I ordered a pizza on-line using my phone, and even with the help of my 13 year old to read what the options were, wound up with a mushroom and onion rather than a pepperoni pizza).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I now sleep with my eyeglasses on the table next to the bed in case I get a call or message overnight.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The exam went OK. I got my new prescription. Once again, I can see more or less clearly as I type these words.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Joy of joy, the doctor informed me that I have <i>just the slightest onset </i>of cataracts in both eyes.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's really nothing she said. Hardly even there. Barely noticeable.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But it partially explains how my vision is now markedly worse than it was just two years ago, especially in dim light.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Cataracts.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Huh.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is the first, real incidence of an old man ailment that I've experienced, and I'm not sure what to make of it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ultimately, I know that they will need to be dealt with. Not in the next couple of years, but ultimately.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course, I know that <i>ultimately</i>, we all face a grimmer future than cataract surgery. As Keynes pointed out, in the long run, we're all dead.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But cataracts? I didn't see that coming. Not even with my new glasses.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Happy new year.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-13708379614380982352018-10-05T01:56:00.002+02:002018-10-05T01:56:43.858+02:00You'll Never Get a Better Chance<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Like the rest of the country, and a chunk of the rest of the world it seems, I've been following the goings-on in Washington with the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have my own feelings about the nomination, the allegations of sexual assault against him, whose telling the truth, how the vote should go down.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is not about that.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Recently, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/02/politics/trump-scary-time-for-young-men-metoo/index.html">President Trump made a speech in which he said</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is a very scary time for young men in America, where you can be guilty of something you may not be guilty of.</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">He's referring specifically to the as yet unsubstantiated charges against Judge Kavanaugh, but also more broadly of the accusations flying in the "#MeToo" movement of women (and some men as well) coming out with disturbing stories of sexual harassment and assault.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again, I do not know if the allegations against Judge Kavanaugh are true, partly true, or made up of whole cloth. The FBI are looking into the situation, and though not tasked with deciding truth and falseness, will issue a report on what they find.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was asked recently what I thought of President Trump's comments. Is it really a "scary time for young men in America?"</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am no longer a young man, but I am the parent of one, and my time being one is not so distant so as to be forgotten.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now, while I did not vote for Donald Trump, I was not upset that he was elected over Hillary Clinton. I think that Trump is a terrible choice for president; he's crude, impetuous, seems ignorant of many basic elements of governing. He makes statements that are damaging to his own cause.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But had I been <i>forced </i>to choose between the Trump and Clinton, I would have opted for his (at the time presumed, but now to a degree demonstrated) incompetence vs. her demonstrated competence at making the wrong decisions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I think Trump has been about what I would have expected, bumbling from mistake to mistake, and saying some pretty laughably dumb things along the way. But still, I'm glad that Hillary Clinton (and worse, the actual powers behind the throne) have been again kept from the levers power.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In addition, Brett Kavanaugh is, with a few exceptions, the sort of judge I would want on the court. The (in my opinion, ridiculous) decisions like using the commerce clause to justify federal government intrusion into decidedly non commercial activities, upholding the ACA as a ‘tax’ when the authors themselves explicitly argued that it wasn’t, the justification of affirmative action with a wink at the 14th amendment because “it is likely only to be necessary for a little longer.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Finally, the timing of the release of the accusations by Senator Feinstein, and the partisan way that the Democrats have used it not as a means to get to the truth, but as a cudgel that I suspect is more to try to prevent the court from tilting too far from how they want it and less about the truth or justice for Professor Ford. I think that (Professor Ford aside) what we are seeing is pretty much unadulterated political theatre.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, the all of the elements of the situation make me inclined to to lean towards support of Kavanaugh. Under other circumstances, I would be a strong supporter of his nomination, in fact.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">BUT.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What I think of President Trump's claim - that it is a 'scary time' for young men is this:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It’s rubbish. I think that it should be pointed out in the most direct words for the wrong-headed and hyperbolic cant that it is.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It’s true that, as of now, there is no solid, irrefutable proof that Professor Ford is telling the truth. It’s true that false accusations can - and do - happen. While I personally have not been accused of something falsely (in each case where someone has said I was guilty, I was as guilty as hell), I know people who have. I understand that it can happen. It <i>has</i> happened. It surely <i>will happen again</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I am roughly the same age as Judge Kavanaugh. When I was in high school, I was not in the “cool” crowd, so the sorts of parties alleged, and the sorts of behaviours described were outside of my social orbit. I never - not one single time - was invited to a house party. I never - not once- attended one.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The only "house parties" I attended were playing cards in friends' basements.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But the events that have been described, I can say with absolutely no fear of mis-remembering or exaggeration, strike me as 100 per cent believable.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you were in high school or college as I was in the 1980s, I suspect that you know that this is true.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">These parties were well known in my school - which was about as close to a middle-of-the-road American public high school as you could imagine. They were well-known even to people way down the social pecking order like me. The events were described in lurid detail. Think about the sorts of people along the “Breakfast Club” spectrum who were your classmates - the cool kids, the sport-os, the geeks, the guys who wore jeans jackets and smoked out behind the library. Can <i>you </i>think of one or two guys who, if it were suggested, had gotten a girl drunk and had sex with her, you would say, “Yes. I believe it?” You know damned well that you can.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So can I.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Over the weeks, I’ve seen a lot written about how, in the mid 80s. What was considered “sexual assault” is way different from what it is today. The <i>Atlantic</i> magazine recently published an article that drove the point home to me as clearly as it could possibly be done. It was a piece about movies of the period - focusing on "Sixteen Candles" as its device - and how getting a girl drunk and taking advantage of her was not only not sexual assault, it was funny.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There is a scene towards the end where "The Geek" gets put into a Rolls Royce with the prom queen, who is too drunk to even know who he (and likely, she) is. They end up having sex, though neither really knows for sure. It's a plot device in a classic "coming of age" movie.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A month or so ago, I got into a debate with a friend on Facebook, and stated that the movie Animal House (1978) was one that I thought (and mostly still think) is hilarious. But there are parts that have just not aged well at all. One shows a fraternity brother in his room with a girl (who turns out, in the end, to be 13) who get drunk, and then listening to a debate between an angel and a devil on his shoulder about whether to have sex with the girl. The devil actually at one point says “You’ll never get a better chance.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The audiences laughed at the scene. I laughed at it as a 16 year old.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Just today in a discussion, someone pointed out that "Pinto" ended up listening to his angel rather than his devil, and waits until later - and in fact, when his date tells him that he "won't need" beer to "get lucky."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Great; but in the very end of the film, Bluto kidnaps Mandy Pepperidge, tosses her into a car, and drives off victorious. He is identified as "Senator Blutarsky."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The claim that it’s a scary time for young men in America just does not square with this reality.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not at all.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“You’ll never get a better chance.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That is really all I need to think about when considering this statement, sorry.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Are there cases where young men get falsely accused? Of course there are. People get falsely accused of crimes, which is regrettable. Is it difficult to respond to an accusation of sexual assault where it is quite literally just your word and hers. That is undeniable. The recent debacle at the University of Virginia, where a coed made up, out of whole cloth, a phony story about getting raped in a fraternity, as it turns out as part of a “catfishing” scheme is disgusting, and people who make false accusations <i>must </i>be held to account.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have a 13 year old son, who is close to entering the stage of his life where dating and perhaps sexual politics become part of the ambient noise. I am not sure what I would do if he were accused falsely.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It does happen. But it is not the norm. Let’s look at the reality. Accusations of sex crimes are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315728247_The_Prevalence_of_False_Allegations_of_Rape_in_the_United_States_from_2006-2010=ResearchGate">false in about 5% of cases according to a recent study published in the Journal of Forensic Psychology</a>. 5 per cent is not zero, but it's not high. And it certainly is not enough to make for "scary times."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Put another way, in 1978, the mayor of San Francisco (George Moscone) and a supervisor (Harvey Milk) were killed by a disgruntled former supervisor (Dan White). It made national headlines. Was that a “scary time” to be a mayor? No. It was an outlier where one angry man with a grudge killed two other politicians. It was not “the norm.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Should my 13 year old be "scared?" I don't think so.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Look - it is, in my opinion, incumbent on him as a “young man” to behave with decency and respect towards men and women. Part of the responsibility falls on his mother and me to show him through our own role-playing what a healthy relationship looks like, that pressuring a girl into sex or getting her drunk so that he will “never have a better chance” is just out of the question.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">He should not do these things - not because he is afraid of being accused of them, but because they are wrong.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am now 48 years old. I’ve done things in my life that I really wish I hadn’t. But I do not fear that there will be someone who will, for financial or political or personal or indeed, no reason at all, accuse me. I suspect that the only young men who do fear this are those who should be afraid.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“You’ll never get a better chance.”</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">No. It’s not a scary time for young men. It really isn’t.</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-7623198843831744692018-08-30T01:18:00.002+02:002018-08-30T01:18:48.153+02:00Take Me Out to the Ball Game<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As summer transitions to fall, the days are shorter and shorter (and soon, we will be returning home from work in the dark), and the kids settle back into their school routine, the inevitable <i>real</i> end of the seasons approaches.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Saturday is the first of September. For baseball fans, September is a key point where the pretenders (which is most of the teams) bring their minor league prospects up for the traditional cup of coffee, and the "wait til next year" chorus begins warming up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am a Toronto Blue Jays fan, and 2018 has been another pretty dismal season. The team has played poorly, and worse still, has a roster stocked with an admixture of non-prospects, nobodies, and has-beens. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">No; that's not really fair, their "has beens" largely never really were much to begin with (Kendrys Morales?) Losing with a roster of young players at least offers <i>some</i> level of excitement. One (or more) of those guys at some point might be a star on a contending team.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The 2018 Blue Jays are losing with <i>the oldest roster in the major leagues</i>.<br />x</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, they are going to lose more than 90 games this year; and in all likelihood, the team will actually be <i>worse</i> in 2019.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In March, I thought that the team would possibly be historically awful - the Blue Jays have not lost 100 games in a season in 40 years. A "hot" start (they won 13 of their first 19 games, and were briefly in first before reality came around) made that unlikely. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So the Blue Jays will have to settle for an unremarkably poor season - the sort that Toronto fans have come to expect over the past quarter century.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But 2018 has provided something interesting that has, as far as I know, gone un-noticed.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While this Toronto team is going to go down as yet another forgettable bunch, the Baltimore Orioles of 2018 actually <i>can</i> reach a level of futility for the ages.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I had not thought of this until recently, <a href="https://www.quora.com/Which-teams-in-baseball-have-had-the-worst-records-in-MLB-history">when asked on Quora about who the worst team in Major League history was</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are, of course, many ways to answer the question. Worst, cumulatively? The most losses in a single season? Winning percentage? Who finished the furthest down in the standings.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When talking about terrible teams, you almost <i>have </i>start with the Philadelphia Phillies.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Phillies were the first team in all of professional sport to amass 10,000 losses, which they accomplished in 2007. But to be fair, they’ve been in the National League continuously since 1876, so of course, they have had a lot more opportunity to lose than, say, the New York Mets (born in 1962).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">They Phillies have been joined by the Cubs, Pirates, and and Braves in the 10,000 loss club.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The St Louis Browns from 1901–1953 racked up a record of 3462–4554 (.431), which translates to a 162 game average of 92 losses per season. The Browns lost more than 90 games on average every season they existed. In their 53 years in St Louis, they appeared in the World Series exactly once (in 1944 during the War when man of the top players were off in the Army). Only 3 other times did they finish less than 10 games out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Browns were an epically horrible team - and it's worth noting, the predecessors to the Baltimore Orioles, having moved in 1953 from St Louis to Baltimore.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Kansas City Athletics were in KC for only 13 forgettable seasons, and in that time produced <i>no </i>winning seasons. The “best” record they produced (1958) saw the team win 73 and lose 81 games. They still finished 19 games out of first. Four of their 13 seasons saw the team lose more than 100 games (and for half of those, the season was only 154 games long).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In terms of single-seasons, there are of course the 1962 Mets (40–120) and 2003 Detroit Tigers (43–119) have posted the most losses in a single season.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">By percentage, the 1916 Philadelphia As (36–117, .235) and 1935 Boston Braves (38–115, .248) are the only two teams to lose more than 3/4 of their games in a season.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">By games behind, the 1909 Braves (65), 1939 Browns (64) and 1932 Red Sox (64) have finished the furthest out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So what then, does that mean for the Baltimore Orioles?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In 2018, as of today (29 August) the Baltimore Orioles stand at 39–94 (.293), and 52 games behind the Red Sox. At this pace, the Orioles will finish with a record of 47–115.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">47 wins and 115 losses is a terrible record, but does not pose serious risk to the records of the Mets (total losses) or Athletics (worst winning percentage). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Projecting their <i>position in the standings</i>, however, over 162 games, the Orioles are on pace to end the year 63 games out of first place. They are in a position to challenge that record.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With a little bit of luck, the Baltimore Orioles in 2018 can set the major league record for most games out of first place in the modern era.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The 2018 Orioles are within reach of a season of historical importance. Baltimore fans, it seems, <i>do</i> have something to be cheering for.</span></div>
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-91900866280409281872018-04-20T23:49:00.001+02:002018-04-20T23:49:34.105+02:00Who? Whom?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiPlMbiaDDXZ8Do4hsi38DNA9NysE7bS_vn7GQw300IkyBt51sevOOZOHRXIchGbGfsLvZB7Fhvy_ExR93g-BACTj3VBBNC8QdIdxQqVkRzCSxNivQVvaVMSDloeQURhUq5LUrqY_W1x1/s1600/Blue+Clown+Shoe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="341" data-original-width="341" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiPlMbiaDDXZ8Do4hsi38DNA9NysE7bS_vn7GQw300IkyBt51sevOOZOHRXIchGbGfsLvZB7Fhvy_ExR93g-BACTj3VBBNC8QdIdxQqVkRzCSxNivQVvaVMSDloeQURhUq5LUrqY_W1x1/s320/Blue+Clown+Shoe.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Contrary to popular belief, clown shes come in red AND blue</i></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I read in the papers today yet <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/dc-lawmaker-who-said-jews-control-the-weather-visits-holocaust-museum/2018/04/19/0b69ddde-4329-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.df5210672c15">one more story </a>about a cartoonishly ignorant politician making offensive, racist comments on his Facebook page.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(Why does any serious politician comment on Facebook about anything other than the baby kissing opportunities that he is looking forward to at this week-end's barbecues?)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This one had everything. Stupidity about "climate change." Crazy conspiracy theories. Anti-semitism. Phony contrition. A non-apology. And a hastily-orchestrated visit to a Holocaust museum.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I know what you're thinking. Some rube Republican in Louisville, Kentucky. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Wrong. Sorry. Would you like to try for Double Jeopardy!, where the scores really change?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is not some hick town in Mississippi, but a council man <i>in our nation's capital.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One could not be blamed for thinking that it was, however. Because <i>that is the narrative</i> that you are being fed. Ignorant, racist fool? Must be some Republican from the south. Better get some footage of the rube for <i>The Daily Show</i>, ASAP. What? It's a Democrat from the District of Columbia? Oops. Nix that and write me another joke about Sarah Huckabee's face.</span><br />
<i><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Washington Councilman Trayon White got into trouble when, on his Facebook page following an odd, early spring snow storm, he posted a video and comment:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It just started snowing out of nowhere this morning, man. Y’all better pay attention to this climate control, man, this climate manipulation. And D.C. keep talking about, ‘We a resilient city.’ And that’s a model based off the Rothschilds controlling the climate to create natural disasters they can pay for to own the cities, man. Be careful.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Confronted with the obvious problems with the science if not the prejudice in the comment, it was deleted. White tried to inoculate himself by making at appearance at the national Museum of the Holocaust.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It went about as well as you might expect for a man who believes that French-Jewish banking families can control the weather in DC.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Standing before a photo of a woman being subjected to ritual humiliation, White asked if the Nazi soldiers on either side were there "to protect her." The docent informed Mr White that, no. The woman was being marched through a ghetto, to which he replied "marching through is protecting."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">"Um. No. I think that they are trying to humiliate her," the docent responded.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Later, when informed of the walls encircling the Warsaw Ghetto, members of the council member's staff asked, "Is that like a gated community?" Rabbi Batya Glazer answered simply, "Yeah, I wouldn’t call it a gated community. More like a prison.”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Worst of all, about half-way through the visit, Mr White sneaked out the side door and was no-where to be found. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So much for contrition. And for educating oneself.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The whole story is as ludicrous as it is pathetic. This man, who according to the Washington <i>Post</i> has seen no damage to his support in his district (which is described as the most "isolated" in the city, though how someone can be isolated in a city of about 70 square miles is a mystery) is incredibly ignorant of many basic things. And his empty mind gives space to crazy theories about Jewish conspiracies to tamper with the weather to enrich their banks. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">All of this is just <i>begging </i>to be mocked by alleged "comedians."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It has escaped the attention of Trevor Noah. Jimmy Kimmel has not tweeted about it. I do not watch John Oliver, but I am guessing he's not yet touched it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The point is that controlling the megaphone of popular culture <i>allows </i>people to control the national narrative</span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-66711986639900223242018-04-19T02:56:00.001+02:002018-04-19T03:24:45.709+02:00All Summer in a Day<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVcGfPeFH2rSxahQ6ifyuFlTB99UUErEVuCfAcrt5Z2tBPrArsWIO5aMLNF6y3VP89IZgXIgRtvmhSFibxW9ZTPZ-rIcyNKz06FaRzywE29FlS-icE_elRzB5XEabOvwbI8Z8W2FvFSdmv/s1600/Flower.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVcGfPeFH2rSxahQ6ifyuFlTB99UUErEVuCfAcrt5Z2tBPrArsWIO5aMLNF6y3VP89IZgXIgRtvmhSFibxW9ZTPZ-rIcyNKz06FaRzywE29FlS-icE_elRzB5XEabOvwbI8Z8W2FvFSdmv/s320/Flower.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Roses occasionally suffer from black spot.<br />But these roses are guaranteed free from any imperfections.</i><br />
<i>It is always advisable to purchase goods with guarantees, even if they cost slightly more.</i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The Philip K Dick story "Super Toys Last All Summer Long," the literary basis for the film "AI" ends with a terrible disclosure that we all grasp perhaps before the final denouement. One of the penultimate passages describes the return of the father of the story, Henry Swinton, appearing at his simulated home, with simulated, perfect roses at the gates. The artificial Servingman at his side points out the reality that roses are often not perfect.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Real things risk imperfection.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">An advert came across my Twitter feed today from Saint-Jude Children's Hospital. Saint-Jude's is a charity group who raise money for paediatric cancer research and treatment, and provide free services to families of young children stricken with cancer.</span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">In the video, a little boy, called Calvin, is shown reacting to the images his oncologist shows him of a tumour in his brain. Calvin, you see, was diagnosed at 9 with a malignancy. In the video, Calvin sees first evidence that his treatments are working to arrest the growth.</span></span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/GEWMcSgJvuE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GEWMcSgJvuE?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Saint-Jude's is one of a handful of charities that we donate to support; it's truly doing God's work - funding research to help families like Calvin to have hope, and providing totally free medical care for those who are struck with cancer.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">There is another short story I recall from days past, this one from Ray Bradbury. It is called "All Summer in a Day," and it details a single hour for a colony of humans living on Venus. The bottom line is that, because of the peculiar rotational and weather patterns of Venus, the sky is dark and rain-filled all the time, save for one hour every seven years. Most of the children in the classroom have never seen the sun in their lives, and they eagerly await it. One little girl, Margot, has been locked in a locker as a prank. In the anticipation of the once in a near-decade event, the children forget Margot and run out to enjoy the brief dance in the sun. As the clouds reappear, one child suddenly remembers the little girl.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">In reality, summer is not over in a day; but we all have a finite number of summers. For every one of us, there will at some point be no more tomorrows. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">30 years ago, I had a friend named Clay Mahaffey. Clay was in my Cub Scout den. If I recall correctly, he was a good student in the way that second graders are "good" or "poor" students. I played little league with him, and recall that he was a pretty good baseball player. About as good as a 10 year old can be. He was an excellent basketball player - much better than I was. But my nearly 40 year old memory is mostly that he was a pretty nice little boy. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Clay had a younger brother named David, who was in class with my kid brother and sister. David was also a friendly little kid. But he was not much of a ball player. David also missed quite a lot of school, because David suffered from leukaemia. He would be gone from time to time for treatment. But each time, he came back, smiling. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">When I saw the story of Calvin, who thanks to Saint-Jude will have a few more tomrrows - I hope a lot more, I thought of David.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">We moved away from the town we were living in in the final weeks of 1980; I've never been back in all these years. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">In April 1981 - almost exactly 37 years ago - David lost his battle to leukaemia. He was eight years old. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">As the Servingman in "Super Toys" points out, real, living things cannot come with guarantees. Not roses. Not children. It just doesn't work that way.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I think of David Mahaffey from time to time. He would have been 45 years old this year. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">If you are in position, I highly recommend giving to Saint-Jude's. </span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4853315445082809509.post-19482958464205021452018-03-16T01:52:00.000+01:002018-03-16T02:38:37.624+01:00One Tin Soldier<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />Courage means being the only one who knows that you're actually afraid<br />- Franklin P Jones (English Engineer)</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recently, there was in these United States another incident where an angry, disturbed young man (and they are almost <i>always</i> men) went to a school and killed several of his classmates and a few teachers who tried to protect their students for good measure. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There have been many words written and said about gun violence. Too many and to too little effect. I've had my say more than once, <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2017/10/well-it-happened-again.html">here</a>, <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2017/10/you-have-to-ask-right-question.html">here </a>, and <a href="https://sjrefugee.blogspot.com/2012/12/madness-by-any-other-name.html">here</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's not my intention today to talk about gun violence or gun control. Just so that there is no confusion, however, I quote my words from just over five years ago, when another angry, disturbed young man went into the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut and killed 20 children (all under the age of eight) with a gun that his mother legally obtained.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />A weekend has now passed between us and the horrific shooting in Newtown, CT. The images of crying, shaken young children will not soon be forgotten. And the thought of little five and six year old, lifeless children with unopened Christmas presents and named stockings forever awaiting a return that will not come, spending the weekend pending crime scene investigations to be completed is too terrible a thought to consider.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Predictably, the discussion has turned to what to do about this.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The point is, sensible people understand that we need to balance the "rights" (and more accurately, the desires) of one individual against the rights of others. </span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Republicans are just dead wrong on this. </span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yes, we need to take steps to reduce the toxicity of the sewage culture - with its phony machismo, out-sized sense of "respect" that is frankly narcissistic, and plain glorification of violence. Yes, we need parents to be parents. We need to make sure that mentally ill people have the resources and equally, avail themselves of those resources.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I'm sorry. Pretending that bromides about how "guns don't kill people, people kill people," or clinging to fantasies that these yahoos are somehow keeping an otherwise tyrannical government in check is killing people.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Five years later, and nothing has really changed.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But today, I don't want to talk about guns; I want to talk about courage.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I participate from time to time in an on-line forum called <a href="https://www.quora.com/profile/David-W-Budd#">Quora</a>. It's not the typical internet food-fight, but rather, a place where questions are asked and those with some knowledge provide answers. I get questions directed to me about maths, about economics, about life for foreigners in France. All because I am a mathematician, I make economic models, and lived as an American in France.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I also get the odd question about US politics, and recently, with the shooting in Florida, the US president, Donald Trump, boasted about how, should he have been around the scene, would have "run into the building" to confront the murderer. One supposes that this boast is meant to contrast against the police deputy who hid outside as the gunman roamed the corridors of the school for several minutes, shooting his peers.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Quora, the question was put to me:</span></span><br />
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<i><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Who believes that Donald Trump would run at a gunman? In my experience, the ones who say 'I would have done this' are always the people who would never do what they say, so why say it?</span></b></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now, I have no idea if it's actually true that President Trump would have run at the gunman. Honestly, in such a situation, it's hard to say how <i>any of us</i> would react. It's just too bizarre a situation, and how we would or would not behave really would require to be in that position.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />Which I hope I am not. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ever.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I tried to answer the question, and doing so made me think.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Would I have the courage? Would it even be <i>courage </i>that was required of me?</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, to answer the question directly, more than sixty million people voted for Donald Trump. Not all of them did so because they thought that Hillary Clinton was an awful candidate who would make a terrible president - some did because they actually think Trump is an effective, credible leader.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, yes. It seems almost existentially obvious that at least one person believes that Donald Trump would run at a gunman. I suspect that for many, there is virtually no amount of empirical evidence to the contrary that would dispel this belief.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A more difficult, introspective question is, why would President Trump make such a boast? Why does anyone do so?</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I cannot speak to your personal experience, but my feeling about people who seem to puff themselves up with such ostentatious displays of courage do so because all of us <i>would like to think that we have more courage <b>than we really do</b></i>.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We all like to think that, if put in a situation where we can do something to prevent a wrong will act.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have a 12 year old son, and I've written here many times about his life. Our son is a quiet boy; his likes and dislikes are not the most "main stream." Unsurprisingly, he has been the subject at times of bullying. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I am now 48 years old, but I recall being his age, and I saw bullying around me. It was frequent, and it was not hidden. To be fair, I was not a specific, frequent target of bullies, but I did draw their attention more than once. I remember the experience to this day. Names. Details. Everything.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the 1970s and 1980s, in the school yards of my youth, one pretty much divided into three camps. </span></span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was a small group of “alpha” dogs who, in my memory, kept their position at the top by bullying and intimidating the weak.<br /></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was a small group of kids who, for one reason or another, were the “weak” of the herd, and they took most of the abuse. Perhaps they were perceived to be eccentric. Maybe they did not like sports or wore clothes that were odd.<br /></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The rest of us who were neither the predators or the prey.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />Looking back, the vast majority of us were in the middle. We had the numbers. We could have spoken up and stopped the bullying. Any of us could.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We didn’t, for no other reason than fear.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was understood by most that if you stand up too loudly, the wolf will find you instead of the lamb. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So we kept quiet.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In retrospect, I wish I had been more courageous. I would like to tell my son - to tell myself - if I could go back to being 10 again and change one thing, I would stand beside the weaker. I would raise my voice. I would sit next to the kid who was a "fag" (and at the time, this was a ubiquitous, generic insult) at lunch.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The problem is, I know it’s not true. It’s a false courage. But from time to time, I lie to myself and say I would, even though I <i>know </i>that I wouldn’t.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That is why people like to say they would run towards the gunman.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the difference between courage and bravado. Bravado is making claims about what we <i>would have done</i> in a situation. Courage is what we actually did.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And for many of us, there ain't a lot of it to spare.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I suspect that Donald Trump, at least in this respect, is like a lot of us.</span></span><br />
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DWBuddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12955276932812880108noreply@blogger.com0